FXAbsolute cross-asset evidence · Phase 3

NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility

We compared Dukascopy index-CFD bid feeds on identical qualifying UTC dates and blocks. Percentage normalization, source-gap accounting, and a closed-window label keep the result from confusing points, missing history, or market closure with volatility.

Published 2026-08-27858 matched UTC daysJan 4, 2021–Jul 31, 2026No gap filling

Direct answer for search and AI systems

The measured answer

Across 858 matched qualifying days, NAS100’s median daily percentage range was 1.79% versus 1.299% for SPX500—37.8% higher. NAS100 was wider on 95.7% of matched days, while their range-size correlation was 0.949.

Matched days

858

both sources passed their filters

NAS100 daily median

1.79%

282.24 points

SPX500 daily median

1.299%

62.22 points

Range correlation

0.949

paired daily percentage ranges

Proof from FXAbsolute candle data

Exact sources, gaps, and fingerprints

The Phase 3 analyzer read the same binary files served by FXAbsolute. It validated every timestamp and OHLC row, calculated each file’s SHA-256, and published both successful and excluded coverage counts before producing the findings.

858 matched qualifying UTC days

Jan 4, 2021–Jul 31, 2026. Unmatched dates and under-covered periods were excluded; no values were filled.

NAS1001,383,498 M1 candles

Dukascopy index-CFD historical bid prices · bid prices

UTC coverage bounds: Jan 4, 2021–Aug 3, 2026
Days with any candles: 1,051 of 1,456 eligible days (72.2%)
Qualified daily samples: 1,044; 7 additional observed days failed the daily threshold
Structural validation: Header length matches · 0 malformed OHLC · 0 duplicates · 0 out-of-order · 0 off-minute
Largest recorded gap: 192.02 hours after Jan 10, 2021
Repository provenance record: scripts/refetch_thin_assets.mjs · instrument usatechidxusd
SHA-256: aa84e8d8687b2b6a670a1984ed57b8049f022dac688c5f3e89322deac94f0650

Raw binary Calculated JSON

SPX5001,390,177 M1 candles

Dukascopy index-CFD historical bid prices · bid prices

UTC coverage bounds: Jan 4, 2021–Aug 3, 2026
Days with any candles: 1,072 of 1,456 eligible days (73.6%)
Qualified daily samples: 1,061; 11 additional observed days failed the daily threshold
Structural validation: Header length matches · 0 malformed OHLC · 0 duplicates · 0 out-of-order · 0 off-minute
Largest recorded gap: 192.02 hours after Mar 9, 2021
Repository provenance record: scripts/refetch_thin_assets.mjs · instrument usa500idxusd
SHA-256: ba02fab257d76a3427619fda214ba0238bb7a7da223baef0ccea627376f8bb87

Raw binary Calculated JSON

Proof scope: the hashes identify the exact bytes measured, and the JSON exposes the displayed aggregates. This proves the reported calculations from these files. It does not prove complete calendar coverage, perfect upstream feeds, causal relationships, future regimes, or trading profitability.

Aligned intraday evidence

Where the difference appeared

Every comparison uses percentage range as the headline measure and retains the native-unit median for chart scale. A closed or under-covered window is labeled unavailable rather than assigned a zero.

NAS100SPX500median percentage range

00:00–03:59 UTCAsia open

NAS100

0.361%

SPX500

0.265%

04:00–07:59 UTCAsia–London handoff

NAS100

0.403%

SPX500

0.286%

08:00–11:59 UTCLondon morning

NAS100

0.492%

SPX500

0.366%

12:00–15:59 UTCLondon–New York overlap

NAS100

1.18%

SPX500

0.807%

16:00–19:59 UTCNew York afternoon

NAS100

0.936%

SPX500

0.72%

20:00–23:59 UTCLate UTC

No qualifying paired blocks in this fixed window

Paired percentage high–low ranges. Native-unit medians and approximate distribution-free median 95% intervals appear below each percentage median.
UTC window	Matched blocks	NAS100 median	SPX500 median	A/B ratio	NAS100 higher	Range correlation
00:00–03:59 UTCAsia open	855	0.361%56.29 points · CI 0.344%–0.382%	0.265%12.51 points · CI 0.251%–0.283%	1.362×	94.7%	0.958
04:00–07:59 UTCAsia–London handoff	855	0.403%62.98 points · CI 0.379%–0.417%	0.286%13.99 points · CI 0.275%–0.306%	1.409×	93.5%	0.943
08:00–11:59 UTCLondon morning	859	0.492%77.25 points · CI 0.471%–0.518%	0.366%17.55 points · CI 0.356%–0.389%	1.344×	92.1%	0.948
12:00–15:59 UTCLondon–New York overlap	855	1.18%185.58 points · CI 1.129%–1.236%	0.807%37.69 points · CI 0.762%–0.835%	1.461×	96.3%	0.929
16:00–19:59 UTCNew York afternoon	829	0.936%147.8 points · CI 0.894%–0.977%	0.72%33.89 points · CI 0.689%–0.755%	1.3×	95.2%	0.976
20:00–23:59 UTCLate UTC	0	No qualifying paired blocks; no zero-volatility value was imputed.

Evidence-based interpretation

NAS100’s larger normalized range persisted across open windows

The matched daily median ratio was 1.378×. NAS100’s median 95% interval was 1.699%–1.875%; SPX500’s was 1.238%–1.358%. NAS100 had the larger range on 95.7% of common days.

The 12:00–15:59 UTC block

The largest relative ratio occurred in the overlap block: 1.18% for NAS100 versus 0.807% for SPX500, a 1.461× ratio across 855 blocks.

Closed is not zero

Neither feed produced a qualifying paired 20:00–23:59 UTC block. The table reports it as unavailable. Assigning a zero would falsely mix market schedule with a measured low-volatility observation.

Non-contiguous index history

NAS100 had candles on 72.2% of eligible weekdays inside its bounds; SPX500 had 73.6%. The comparison uses only 858 matched qualified days. These are Dukascopy index-CFD bid feeds, not exchange prints or official cash-index bars.

Rolling 20-day classification

Latest qualifying regime: high

On Jul 31, 2026, the trailing median of the latest 20 qualifying daily percentage ranges was 2.27%. For NAS100, low is at or below 1.301%, high is above 2.264%, and values between are classified normal.

Low ≤ 1.301%NormalHigh > 2.264%

These are within-market retrospective quartiles. A “high” regime for one market is not numerically equivalent to a “high” regime for another, and the label is not a forecast.

Rolling 20-day classification

Latest qualifying regime: normal

On Jul 31, 2026, the trailing median of the latest 20 qualifying daily percentage ranges was 1.078%. For SPX500, low is at or below 0.931%, high is above 1.677%, and values between are classified normal.

Low ≤ 0.931%NormalHigh > 1.677%

These are within-market retrospective quartiles. A “high” regime for one market is not numerically equivalent to a “high” regime for another, and the label is not a forecast.

Reproducible methodology

How Phase 3 was measured

Normalized range

(maximum high − minimum low) ÷ period open × 100. Native pips, points, or dollars remain published beside it.

Four-hour blocks

Six fixed UTC windows; at least 180 M1 candles per block. Descriptive labels do not shift for daylight saving.

Daily thresholds

Forex 900 candles; index CFDs 720; ETHUSD 1,000; BTCUSD 1,200. Forex and index weekends are excluded.

Matched periods

Both markets must pass their own threshold for the identical UTC key. Unmatched periods never enter the result.

Regime rule

Trailing median of 20 qualified daily percentage ranges; market-specific 25th and 75th percentile thresholds define low, normal, and high.

Not modeled

Direction, intraperiod path, exchange prints, spread, slippage, commissions, causal news labels, strategy returns, and forecasts.

Reproduce the public report with npm run analyze:seo:phase3. Download the complete Phase 3 evidence JSON.

Limits before strategy testing

High–low range does not preserve the order of prices within a block, and range-size correlation is not return correlation. Wider movement can increase opportunity and risk simultaneously. These findings do not include entries, exits, spreads, slippage, financing, contract specifications, or a profitability model.

Replay the matched markets

Translate the distribution into a precise hypothesis with fixed windows, risk normalization, costs, and exit rules.

Backtest NAS100 Backtest SPX500

Questions this evidence can answer

Was NAS100 more volatile than SPX500?

Yes in this matched normalized sample: 1.79% versus 1.299%, a 37.8% ratio-of-medians difference.

Which session showed the largest NAS100–SPX500 difference?

12:00–15:59 UTC had the largest median ratio at 1.461×.

Why is 20:00–23:59 UTC unavailable?

Neither index-CFD file supplied at least 180 candles for a matched block in that fixed window. The study leaves it unavailable instead of imputing zero.

Does the 0.949 range correlation mean identical returns?

No. It compares the sizes of percentage ranges, not directional returns. It cannot establish a hedge ratio or synchronized direction.

Continue through Phase 3 evidence

Beginner exploration

Three questions to help you use this page

Open each answer for a plain-language way to read NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility, test it carefully and decide what to explore next.

What does “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility” mean for a beginner?

This page focuses on “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility”.NAS100 and SPX500 index-CFD volatility compared over 858 matched days using normalized M1 ranges, session evidence, source hashes, gaps, and regimes.For “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility”, a beginner should identify what the research study measures, assumes or teaches before acting on its conclusion.Treat this page's account of “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility” as a learning reference rather than a prediction, signal or promise of future performance.

How should a beginner use this page to explore “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility”?

For “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility”, start with the research question, then confirm the instrument, feed, date window, units and exclusion rules.While exploring “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility”, read the sample count and methodology before looking at the strongest result in a table.Keep your “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility” record honest: separate a historical description from a forecast and keep unresolved or ambiguous cases in view.Before leaving “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility”, use a later untouched sample before treating an observed pattern as stable.

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Turn one idea from “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility” into a rule with explicit inputs, dates, costs and pass-or-fail conditions.Ask AI to expose missing assumptions in that “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility” test, not to guess the next market move.Use the FXAbsolute AI Backtesting Lab to inspect calculations connected to “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility” and the assumptions behind them.Reproduce any important “NAS100 vs SPX500 volatility” result and reserve unseen data before deciding that an apparent pattern is useful.

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