AUDCAD vs AUDUSD volatility
Both pairs share the Australian dollar, but that does not guarantee the same movement scale. We matched identical qualifying UTC keys, normalized each range by its opening price, and published the exception as well as the overall result.
The measured answer
Across 1,270 matched days, AUDCAD’s median daily percentage range was 0.635% versus 0.886% for AUDUSD. AUDCAD’s ratio-of-medians result was 28.3% lower and it had the larger normalized range on only 11% of matched days. The late-UTC block was the exception.
Exact sources, gaps, and fingerprints
The Phase 3 analyzer read the same binary files served by FXAbsolute. It validated every timestamp and OHLC row, calculated each file’s SHA-256, and published both successful and excluded coverage counts before producing the findings.
Jan 4, 2021–Apr 30, 2026. Unmatched dates and under-covered periods were excluded; no values were filled.
Dukascopy historical bid prices · bid prices
- UTC coverage bounds
- Jan 3, 2021–Apr 30, 2026
- Days with any candles
- 1,322 of 1,389 eligible days (95.2%)
- Qualified daily samples
- 1,317; 5 additional observed days failed the daily threshold
- Structural validation
- Header length matches · 0 malformed OHLC · 0 duplicates · 0 out-of-order · 0 off-minute
- Largest recorded gap
- 120.02 hours after Jun 23, 2021
- Repository provenance record
scripts/fetch_candles.mjs· instrumentaudcad- SHA-256
d474588e33f31634528ddbafa5c7a26d6a5cdf1cd438d6c19c475a44d3c2a203
Dukascopy historical bid prices · bid prices
- UTC coverage bounds
- Jan 3, 2021–Apr 30, 2026
- Days with any candles
- 1,340 of 1,389 eligible days (96.5%)
- Qualified daily samples
- 1,334; 6 additional observed days failed the daily threshold
- Structural validation
- Header length matches · 0 malformed OHLC · 0 duplicates · 0 out-of-order · 0 off-minute
- Largest recorded gap
- 744.02 hours after Feb 28, 2021
- Repository provenance record
scripts/fetch_candles.mjs· instrumentaudusd- SHA-256
4e1044d34524265aba62850fdf40172f46e8b341df5c7d6c9c0aeb5c18367e65
Proof scope: the hashes identify the exact bytes measured, and the JSON exposes the displayed aggregates. This proves the reported calculations from these files. It does not prove complete calendar coverage, perfect upstream feeds, causal relationships, future regimes, or trading profitability.
Where the difference appeared
Every comparison uses percentage range as the headline measure and retains the native-unit median for chart scale. A closed or under-covered window is labeled unavailable rather than assigned a zero.
| UTC window | Matched blocks | AUDCAD median | AUDUSD median | A/B ratio | AUDCAD higher | Range correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00–03:59 UTCAsia open | 1,268 | 0.256%23.3 pips · CI 0.249%–0.264% | 0.358%24.6 pips · CI 0.348%–0.368% | 0.716× | 3.3% | 0.914 |
| 04:00–07:59 UTCAsia–London handoff | 1,269 | 0.227%20.8 pips · CI 0.221%–0.235% | 0.323%22.3 pips · CI 0.315%–0.333% | 0.704× | 3.7% | 0.9 |
| 08:00–11:59 UTCLondon morning | 1,269 | 0.23%20.8 pips · CI 0.222%–0.239% | 0.325%22.2 pips · CI 0.314%–0.336% | 0.709× | 9.9% | 0.836 |
| 12:00–15:59 UTCLondon–New York overlap | 1,269 | 0.352%32.3 pips · CI 0.342%–0.366% | 0.493%33.5 pips · CI 0.474%–0.513% | 0.715× | 15.9% | 0.786 |
| 16:00–19:59 UTCNew York afternoon | 1,267 | 0.205%18.7 pips · CI 0.196%–0.214% | 0.295%20 pips · CI 0.284%–0.311% | 0.694× | 13.5% | 0.848 |
| 20:00–23:59 UTCLate UTC | 1,012 | 0.219%20 pips · CI 0.215%–0.226% | 0.193%13 pips · CI 0.184%–0.199% | 1.135× | 61.6% | 0.805 |
AUDUSD’s lead was broad—but not universal
AUDUSD had the larger normalized daily range on 89% of matched days. The paired range-size correlation was 0.808, showing that large-range days often coincided even though AUDUSD’s scale was generally larger. The median 95% intervals were 0.618%–0.649% for AUDCAD and 0.855%–0.91% for AUDUSD.
The late-UTC exception
From 20:00–23:59 UTC, AUDCAD’s paired median was 0.219% versus 0.193% for AUDUSD. The ratio reversed to 1.135×, and AUDCAD was higher in 61.6% of matched blocks. This is why an all-day ranking should not be copied into every session hypothesis.
Coverage matters
AUDCAD contained candles on 95.2% of eligible weekdays inside its date bounds; AUDUSD covered 96.5%. The paired analysis used 1,270 common qualified days rather than assuming every calendar weekday existed.
Backtest design
Test identical AUD-based rules with percentage-normalized risk and separate UTC windows. Native pips—57.6 pips versus 60.3 pips—remain useful for execution scale, but the percentage comparison is the fairer cross-rate measure.
Latest qualifying regime: normal
On Apr 30, 2026, the trailing median of the latest 20 qualifying daily percentage ranges was 0.575%. For AUDCAD, low is at or below 0.544%, high is above 0.73%, and values between are classified normal.
These are within-market retrospective quartiles. A “high” regime for one market is not numerically equivalent to a “high” regime for another, and the label is not a forecast.
Latest qualifying regime: normal
On Apr 30, 2026, the trailing median of the latest 20 qualifying daily percentage ranges was 0.779%. For AUDUSD, low is at or below 0.77%, high is above 1.001%, and values between are classified normal.
These are within-market retrospective quartiles. A “high” regime for one market is not numerically equivalent to a “high” regime for another, and the label is not a forecast.
How Phase 3 was measured
(maximum high − minimum low) ÷ period open × 100. Native pips, points, or dollars remain published beside it.Reproduce the public report with npm run analyze:seo:phase3. Download the complete Phase 3 evidence JSON.
Limits before strategy testing
High–low range does not preserve the order of prices within a block, and range-size correlation is not return correlation. Wider movement can increase opportunity and risk simultaneously. These findings do not include entries, exits, spreads, slippage, financing, contract specifications, or a profitability model.
Replay the matched markets
Translate the distribution into a precise hypothesis with fixed windows, risk normalization, costs, and exit rules.
Questions this evidence can answer
Was AUDCAD or AUDUSD more volatile?
AUDUSD had the higher matched daily percentage-range median: 0.886% versus 0.635% for AUDCAD across 1,270 days.
Did AUDCAD ever show the higher session median?
Yes. From 20:00–23:59 UTC, AUDCAD’s median was 0.219% versus 0.193% for AUDUSD.
How closely did AUDCAD and AUDUSD range sizes move together?
Their matched daily percentage-range correlation was 0.808. That compares movement magnitude, not return direction.
Does the result prove AUDUSD is the better pair to trade?
No. Larger range does not include direction, entries, costs, drawdown, or expectancy. It only describes historical movement in matched samples.