ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility
We matched Ethereum and Bitcoin by qualifying UTC day, separated 994 weekdays from 380 weekends, and normalized their ranges. The page also distinguishes Dukascopy ETH provenance from BTC’s undocumented upstream CSV source.
The measured answer
Across 1,374 matched days, ETHUSD’s median daily percentage range was 4.763% versus 3.593% for BTCUSD—32.5% higher. Weekend medians fell to 3.572% for ETH and 2.503% for BTC.
Exact sources, gaps, and fingerprints
The Phase 3 analyzer read the same binary files served by FXAbsolute. It validated every timestamp and OHLC row, calculated each file’s SHA-256, and published both successful and excluded coverage counts before producing the findings.
Jul 25, 2021–Jul 22, 2026. Unmatched dates and under-covered periods were excluded; no values were filled.
Dukascopy ETHUSD historical bid prices · bid prices
- UTC coverage bounds
- Jan 1, 2021–Aug 3, 2026
- Days with any candles
- 1,608 of 2,041 eligible days (78.8%)
- Qualified daily samples
- 1,585; 23 additional observed days failed the daily threshold
- Structural validation
- Header length matches · 0 malformed OHLC · 0 duplicates · 0 out-of-order · 0 off-minute
- Largest recorded gap
- 144.02 hours after Nov 20, 2025
- Repository provenance record
scripts/refetch_thin_assets.mjs· instrumentethusd- SHA-256
3e44311806f8952b1c27803611550b63e8beecd9aa5d5217749706242b5347cb
Local CSV import; upstream provider is not documented in this repository · Not recorded upstream; local OHLC import prices
- UTC coverage bounds
- Jul 24, 2021–Jul 23, 2026
- Days with any candles
- 1,826 of 1,826 eligible days (100%)
- Qualified daily samples
- 1,823; 3 additional observed days failed the daily threshold
- Structural validation
- Header length matches · 0 malformed OHLC · 0 duplicates · 0 out-of-order · 0 off-minute
- Largest recorded gap
- 4.52 hours after Aug 13, 2021
- Repository provenance record
scripts/build_btc.mjs and scripts/build_btc.py- SHA-256
e206d38828359fe6dc7733152d02c105f21e75557a57a5158464cdbb406186d2
Proof scope: the hashes identify the exact bytes measured, and the JSON exposes the displayed aggregates. This proves the reported calculations from these files. It does not prove complete calendar coverage, perfect upstream feeds, causal relationships, future regimes, or trading profitability.
Where the difference appeared
Every comparison uses percentage range as the headline measure and retains the native-unit median for chart scale. A closed or under-covered window is labeled unavailable rather than assigned a zero.
| UTC window | Matched blocks | ETHUSD median | BTCUSD median | A/B ratio | ETHUSD higher | Range correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00–03:59 UTCAsia open | 1,363 | 1.811%$46.4 · CI 1.746%–1.896% | 1.289%$765.67 · CI 1.231%–1.356% | 1.405× | 84.8% | 0.816 |
| 04:00–07:59 UTCAsia–London handoff | 1,345 | 1.436%$36.2 · CI 1.384%–1.497% | 1.03%$611.19 · CI 0.998%–1.073% | 1.394× | 82.3% | 0.833 |
| 08:00–11:59 UTCLondon morning | 1,354 | 1.544%$38.6 · CI 1.467%–1.607% | 1.113%$661.49 · CI 1.062%–1.151% | 1.387× | 81.3% | 0.852 |
| 12:00–15:59 UTCLondon–New York overlap | 1,375 | 2.297%$58 · CI 2.221%–2.374% | 1.795%$999.25 · CI 1.716%–1.859% | 1.28× | 79% | 0.844 |
| 16:00–19:59 UTCNew York afternoon | 1,371 | 1.958%$49.7 · CI 1.877%–2.034% | 1.499%$847.55 · CI 1.432%–1.546% | 1.306× | 78.8% | 0.853 |
| 20:00–23:59 UTCLate UTC | 1,347 | 1.703%$44.2 · CI 1.624%–1.796% | 1.301%$761.66 · CI 1.248%–1.365% | 1.309× | 79.1% | 0.829 |
Ethereum’s normalized range was larger on weekdays and weekends
ETHUSD had the wider daily range on 81.7% of all matched days, and the daily range-size correlation was 0.802. The median intervals were 4.608%–4.906% for ETH and 3.452%–3.744% for BTC.
Weekday medians
ETH 5.249%BTC 3.944%ETH was higher on 79.5% of matched weekdays.
Weekend medians
ETH 3.572%BTC 2.503%ETH was higher on 87.4% of matched weekends.
Both markets slowed on weekends
ETH’s weekend median was 32% below its weekday median. BTC’s was 36.5% lower. That measures daily range, not liquidity, spread, or strategy expectancy.
Provenance is asymmetric
ETHUSD has a repository fetch record for Dukascopy bid prices, but its any-candle coverage inside the date bounds was 78.8%. BTCUSD’s local binary covered 100% of calendar days, but the upstream CSV provider is not documented. Matched filtering improves comparability without repairing that attribution limitation.
Latest qualifying regime: low
On Aug 2, 2026, the trailing median of the latest 20 qualifying daily percentage ranges was 2.919%. For ETHUSD, low is at or below 4.083%, high is above 6.321%, and values between are classified normal.
These are within-market retrospective quartiles. A “high” regime for one market is not numerically equivalent to a “high” regime for another, and the label is not a forecast.
Latest qualifying regime: low
On Jul 22, 2026, the trailing median of the latest 20 qualifying daily percentage ranges was 2.667%. For BTCUSD, low is at or below 2.744%, high is above 4.235%, and values between are classified normal.
These are within-market retrospective quartiles. A “high” regime for one market is not numerically equivalent to a “high” regime for another, and the label is not a forecast.
How Phase 3 was measured
(maximum high − minimum low) ÷ period open × 100. Native pips, points, or dollars remain published beside it.Reproduce the public report with npm run analyze:seo:phase3. Download the complete Phase 3 evidence JSON.
Limits before strategy testing
High–low range does not preserve the order of prices within a block, and range-size correlation is not return correlation. Wider movement can increase opportunity and risk simultaneously. These findings do not include entries, exits, spreads, slippage, financing, contract specifications, or a profitability model.
Replay the matched markets
Translate the distribution into a precise hypothesis with fixed windows, risk normalization, costs, and exit rules.
Questions this evidence can answer
Was ETH or BTC more volatile in the matched data?
ETHUSD had the higher normalized daily median: 4.763% versus 3.593% for BTCUSD.
How much did Ethereum volatility fall on weekends?
ETH’s weekend median was 3.572% versus 5.249% on weekdays, a 32% reduction.
How much did Bitcoin volatility fall on weekends?
BTC’s weekend median was 2.503% versus 3.944% on weekdays, a 36.5% reduction.
Do ETH and BTC use the same data provider here?
No. ETHUSD has a Dukascopy bid-price fetch record. BTCUSD is a local CSV-derived import whose upstream provider is not recorded in the repository.
Continue through Phase 3 evidence
Beginner exploration
Three questions to help you use this page
Open each answer for a plain-language way to read ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility, test it carefully and decide what to explore next.
What does “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” mean for a beginner?
This page focuses on “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility”.ETHUSD and BTCUSD weekday/weekend volatility compared over 1,374 matched days using normalized M1 ranges, samples, correlations, provenance, and proof.For “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility”, a beginner should identify what the research study measures, assumes or teaches before acting on its conclusion.Treat this page's account of “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” as a learning reference rather than a prediction, signal or promise of future performance.
How should a beginner use this page to explore “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility”?
For “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility”, start with the research question, then confirm the instrument, feed, date window, units and exclusion rules.While exploring “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility”, read the sample count and methodology before looking at the strongest result in a table.Keep your “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” record honest: separate a historical description from a forecast and keep unresolved or ambiguous cases in view.Before leaving “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility”, use a later untouched sample before treating an observed pattern as stable.
How can AI help explore “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” responsibly?
Turn one idea from “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” into a rule with explicit inputs, dates, costs and pass-or-fail conditions.Ask AI to expose missing assumptions in that “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” test, not to guess the next market move.Use the FXAbsolute AI Backtesting Lab to inspect calculations connected to “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” and the assumptions behind them.Reproduce any important “ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility” result and reserve unseen data before deciding that an apparent pattern is useful.
Continue your exploration of ETHUSD vs BTCUSD weekend volatility with the beginner AI prompt guide, or inspect public calculations in the AI Backtesting Lab.