What Profit Target Is Realistic?
https://fxabsolute.com/stats/GBPUSD.json.
How often GBP/USD covers a given distance
| Distance (pips) | As a multiple of the median | Share of days reaching it |
|---|---|---|
| 21.9 | 0.25× | 100% |
| 43.9 | 0.5× | 96% |
| 65.8 | 0.75× | 77% |
| 87.7 | 1× | 50% |
| 109.7 | 1.25× | 28.5% |
| 131.6 | 1.5× | 17% |
| 175.5 | 2× | 6.3% |
Read down the last column and the arithmetic of a target becomes uncomfortable. A 131.6-pip move is available on 17% of days — so a strategy needing it has to be right about direction and catch one of those days.
The same distances, across the majors
| Instrument | Unit | Median day | 1.5× median | Share reaching it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | pips | 79.5 | 131.6 | 17% |
| EUR/USD | pips | 61.6 | 103.5 | 18.4% |
| USD/JPY | pips | 89.1 | 153.1 | 22.5% |
| GBP/JPY | pips | 119.8 | 200.5 | 21.4% |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | pips (0.1) | 249.8 | 420 | 25.6% |
Targets and time
These are whole-day figures. A target that needs 1.5× the median range is not merely unlikely — it is unlikely within a day, and a trade held across sessions inherits the gap risk that comes with them.
Neither table says what distance to use. They say what a given distance is asking the market for, which is the part usually assumed rather than checked.
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Questions
What is a realistic profit target in pips?
On GBP/USD, half of all days cover 87.7 pips or more. A target at that distance is reached by the market on 50% of days; one at 175.5 pips only on 6.3%.
Is a 100 pip target realistic on GBP/USD?
Roughly: 109.7 pips is covered on 28.5% of days. So it is available about a quarter to a third of the time, before accounting for direction being right.
Do these figures account for entry timing?
No — they are whole-day ranges measured high to low. A trade entered mid-day has less of that range remaining, so treat these as an upper bound.