Phase 5 / Interactive evidence lab

XAUUSD opening-range probability explorer

Recompute break, continuation, opposite-first, ambiguous, unresolved, and no-break counts from one fingerprinted M1 source.

Published 28 August 2026Method 5.0.0Dukascopy bid M1Fixed UTC clocks

Direct answer from the test

This free explorer filters 8,149 qualifying XAUUSD observations across fixed 07:00 and 13:30 UTC clocks, 15/30/60-minute ranges, five weekdays, three continuation targets, and four range-size quartiles. It reports price-event probabilities—not strategy profitability.

Source candles 1,871,487 Exact production XAUUSD M1 bid file

Qualifying observations 8,149 Two clocks × three durations, after exclusions

Unique UTC dates 1,362 At least one clock-and-duration test qualified

Source validation 0 defects Timestamp, alignment, ordering, and OHLC checks

Interactive artifact

Filter the XAUUSD opening-range evidence

Select a fixed clock, range duration, UTC weekday, continuation target, and opening-range quartile. Results are recomputed in the browser from the public observations.

Static 07:00 / 30-minute view ready

Clock anchor

Range length

UTC weekday

Continuation target

Range-size quartile

Qualifying tests 1,362 07:00 UTC, 30 minutes, all weekdays and quartiles

Any boundary break 99.6% 1,356 / 1,362; 95% CI 99.0-99.8%

Continuation among resolved 70.6% 910 / 1,289; 95% CI 68.1-73.0%

Opposite first among resolved 29.4% 379 / 1,289 resolved outcomes

All ordered outcome classes

The static default uses the 07:00 UTC 30-minute range and 0.50R target. Interactive shares use all ordered first-break observations.

67.1%

27.9%

910 / 67.1%Continuation first

379 / 27.9%Opposite first

0 / 0.0%Later-bar ambiguous

67 / 4.9%Unresolved

Selected distribution

Median opening range: $3.85
Middle half: $2.75-$6.12
Median evaluation / range: 2.538×
Median first break: 6 min

Outcome audit

Ordered first breaks: 1,356
Continuation first: 910
Opposite boundary first: 379
Later-bar ambiguous: 0
Unresolved: 67
Ambiguous first-break candle: 0
No break: 6

What the explorer is for

The explorer exposes how the same dataset changes under declared filters. It is not an optimizer and does not label the largest cell as a strategy. Every view keeps continuation-first, opposite-first, same-minute ambiguity, unresolved, and no-break counts visible.

Range quartiles use the full selected clock-and-duration thresholds, then apply the weekday filter. This preserves one stable definition for Q1 through Q4. Trying many combinations and publishing only the best historical result would create selection bias; use a filtered view to write a hypothesis and test it once on later data.

Fixed 07:00 UTC / London clock: the same four-hour follow-up after three range lengths
Range length	Fixed range clock	Tests	Median range	Any break	Both sides	0.50R continuation*	Median first break
15 minutes	07:00-07:14 UTC	1,362	$2.78	99.8%	62.1%	68.1%	3 min
30 minutes	07:00-07:29 UTC	1,362	$3.85	99.6%	48.1%	70.6%	6 min
60 minutes	07:00-07:59 UTC	1,361	$5.41	98.8%	32.2%	73.1%	9 min

*Resolved ordered outcomes. Longer ranges create wider boundaries and a later evaluation start, so the rows describe different tests rather than interchangeable settings.

Fixed 13:30 UTC / U.S. clock: the same four-hour follow-up after three range lengths
Range length	Fixed range clock	Tests	Median range	Any break	Both sides	0.50R continuation*	Median first break
15 minutes	13:30-13:44 UTC	1,357	$5.53	99.6%	50.3%	70.6%	2 min
30 minutes	13:30-13:59 UTC	1,357	$7.49	98.1%	33.7%	72.9%	4 min
60 minutes	13:30-14:29 UTC	1,350	$10.46	91.4%	18.0%	75.6%	10 min

*Resolved ordered outcomes. Longer ranges create wider boundaries and a later evaluation start, so the rows describe different tests rather than interchangeable settings.

Read the output correctly

“Any break” uses every selected qualifying test.
Continuation and opposite-first percentages use resolved ordered outcomes.
Ambiguous, unresolved, and no-break counts stay visible outside that resolved denominator.
R is each test's own opening-range size, not fixed dollars or account risk.
All controls describe historical bid-price events and exclude trading costs.

Proof from FXAbsolute candle data

One exact source, fully fingerprinted

The Phase 5 analyzer reads the production XAUUSD binary directly. It verifies the four-byte candle count, expected byte length, every timestamp, and every OHLC row before calculating a range. The published JSON includes aggregate tables plus all 8,149 qualifying clock-and-duration observations.

Source	M1 candles	Bytes	UTC coverage	SHA-256
XAUUSD_M1.bin	1,871,487	37,429,744	2021-01-03 to 2026-04-30	`b3472e52f51bae343be941a8e8fb6dbdbc8749896c907b6ef77144b9b8c5cd63`

0 duplicate timestamps0 out-of-order rows0 non-minute timestamps0 invalid OHLC rows

Open the Phase 5 evidence JSON

The file header declares 1,871,487 rows and its 37,429,744 bytes match exactly. Calendar coverage is 98.6% across eligible UTC weekdays. Missing periods are disclosed and never filled.

Methodology 5.0.0

Exactly how every opening range was tested

1. Fix the clock

The two anchors are 07:00 UTC and 13:30 UTC. They never shift for daylight saving. “London” and “New York” are search-friendly clock labels, not assertions that one venue opens at the same UTC minute all year.

2. Build the box

The analyzer takes the highest bid high and lowest bid low in the first 15, 30, or 60 minutes. Every expected opening-range minute must be present; a gap disqualifies that test.

3. Observe four hours

The next 240 clock minutes form the evaluation window. At least 210 observed M1 candles are required. High-only, low-only, both-side, and no-break tests all remain visible.

4. Preserve order

Target-versus-opposite ordering starts on the minute after the first break. If both events share one later M1 candle, the record is ambiguous because OHLC cannot reveal the intrabar sequence.

Continuation targets are 0.25R, 0.50R, and 1.00R beyond the first-broken boundary, where R is that test's opening-range size. A high break and low break are strict inequalities; merely touching the recorded boundary is not counted.

Continue through the Phase 5 evidence

Replay the same market in the free XAUUSD backtester. Add your own entry, costs, stop, exit, and holdout period before treating any historical pattern as a strategy.

Questions answered by this dataset

What can the XAUUSD opening-range explorer filter?

Fixed clock anchor, 15/30/60-minute range length, UTC weekday, 0.25R/0.50R/1.00R continuation target, and range-size quartile.

Does the explorer hide ambiguous or unresolved outcomes?

No. Continuation-first, opposite-first, same-minute ambiguous, unresolved, and no-break counts remain visible for every selection.

Is a boundary-break rate the win rate of an XAUUSD strategy?

No. It reports whether an observed bid high or low crossed the opening-range boundary during the next four hours. No executable entry, stop, exit, costs, or position size is included.

Does the study adjust London and New York clocks for daylight saving?

No. The anchors stay fixed at 07:00 UTC and 13:30 UTC for reproducibility. The session names are clock-window shorthand.