{ "study": "FXAbsolute Phase 5 XAUUSD opening-range breakout evidence", "generatedOn": "2026-08-28", "methodologyVersion": "5.0.0", "summary": { "uniqueSourceFiles": 1, "totalSourceCandles": 1871487, "totalQualifyingTests": 8149, "uniqueQualifyingDates": 1362, "windowAnchors": 2, "openingRangeDurations": 3, "studyPages": 5, "interactiveArtifacts": 1 }, "methodology": { "input": "The exact XAUUSD M1 OHLC binary served by FXAbsolute, sourced as Dukascopy historical bid prices.", "validation": "The binary is checked for declared length, SHA-256, timestamp order, duplicates, minute alignment, and OHLC consistency. Missing minutes are never filled.", "windows": "Opening ranges begin at fixed 07:00 UTC and 13:30 UTC anchors and last 15, 30, or 60 minutes. Each test observes the next 240 clock minutes. The later anchor is a U.S.-session research clock, not a claim about a single exchange open.", "qualification": "Weekdays only. Every opening-range minute must be observed, and the four-hour evaluation must contain at least 210 of 240 possible M1 candles.", "breakout": "A high break requires an observed bid high strictly above the opening-range high. A low break requires an observed bid low strictly below the opening-range low. High-only, low-only, both-side, and no-break tests are retained.", "ordering": "First-break direction is read in timestamp order. If one M1 candle breaks both boundaries, direction is ambiguous. Continuation-versus-opposite outcomes start on the next complete M1 candle; if both later thresholds occur in one candle, the outcome remains ambiguous.", "targets": "Continuation targets are 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00 times that test's opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary. Opposite-first means the other opening-range boundary breaks earlier.", "statistics": "Counts, rates, Wilson 95% confidence intervals, medians, quartiles, 90th percentiles, approximate distribution-free median confidence intervals, and matched Pearson correlations are published.", "limitations": "This is bid-price market-structure evidence, not strategy P&L. It excludes spread, slippage, commission, latency, entry buffers, stops, exits, position sizing, financing, news controls, and daylight-saving shifts." }, "definitions": { "timezone": "UTC fixed clock; no daylight-saving adjustment", "openingRangeDurationsMinutes": [ 15, 30, 60 ], "evaluationMinutes": 240, "minimumEvaluationCandles": 210, "continuationTargetsOpeningRangeMultiples": [ 0.25, 0.5, 1 ], "unit": "USD per ounce; one published tenth equals 0.1 in the XAUUSD quote" }, "source": { "provider": "Dukascopy historical bid prices", "instrumentId": "xauusd", "provenanceRecord": "scripts/fetch_candles.mjs", "priceType": "bid", "file": "/data/XAUUSD_M1.bin", "sha256": "b3472e52f51bae343be941a8e8fb6dbdbc8749896c907b6ef77144b9b8c5cd63", "bytes": 37429744, "declaredCandles": 1871487, "coverageStartUtc": "2021-01-03T23:00:00.000Z", "coverageEndUtc": "2026-04-30T23:59:00.000Z" }, "validation": { "expectedBytes": 37429744, "lengthMatchesHeader": true, "duplicateTimestamps": 0, "outOfOrderTimestamps": 0, "nonMinuteTimestamps": 0, "invalidOhlc": 0, "largestGapSeconds": 262920, "largestGapAfterUtc": "2021-12-23T21:58:00.000Z" }, "coverageAudit": { "eligibleCalendarWeekdays": 1389, "eligibleRawWeekdays": 1370, "missingWeekdaysWithNoCandles": 19, "anyCandleCoverageRatePct": 98.6 }, "studies": [ { "key": "london-0700:15", "windowId": "london-0700", "windowLabel": "London clock window (fixed 07:00 UTC)", "searchLabel": "London opening range", "startUtc": "07:00", "durationMinutes": 15, "rangeWindowUtc": "07:00-07:14", "evaluationWindowUtc": "07:15-11:14", "coverageAudit": { "eligibleRawWeekdays": 1370, "qualifyingTests": 1362, "excludedRangeCoverage": 8, "excludedEvaluationCoverage": 0, "excludedZeroRange": 0 }, "overall": { "qualifyingTests": 1362, "openingRangeUsd": { "samples": 1362, "mean": 4.08, "median": 2.78, "p25": 2, "p75": 4.37, "p90": 7.42, "medianCi95": [ 2.67, 2.89 ] }, "openingRangeTenths": { "samples": 1362, "mean": 40.8, "median": 27.8, "p25": 20, "p75": 43.7, "p90": 74.2, "medianCi95": [ 26.7, 28.9 ] }, "evaluationRangeUsd": { "samples": 1362, "mean": 14.32, "median": 10.05, "p25": 7.04, "p75": 15.29, "p90": 24.65, "medianCi95": [ 9.63, 10.39 ] }, "evaluationToOpeningRangeRatio": { "samples": 1362, "mean": 3.948, "median": 3.426, "p25": 2.537, "p75": 4.884, "p90": 6.585, "medianCi95": [ 3.317, 3.538 ] }, "anyBoundaryBreak": { "successes": 1359, "total": 1362, "ratePct": 99.8, "ci95Pct": [ 99.4, 99.9 ] }, "breakoutClasses": { "high-only": 255, "low-only": 258, "both": 846, "none": 3 }, "breakoutClassRatesPct": { "high-only": 18.7, "low-only": 18.9, "both": 62.1, "none": 0.2 }, "firstSides": { "high": 687, "low": 672, "same-minute-ambiguous": 0, "none": 3 }, "firstHighAmongOrderedBreaks": { "successes": 687, "total": 1359, "ratePct": 50.6, "ci95Pct": [ 47.9, 53.2 ] }, "orderedFirstBreakSamples": 1359, "firstBreakMinutesAfterRange": { "samples": 1359, "mean": 8, "median": 3, "p25": 0, "p75": 10, "p90": 20, "medianCi95": [ 3, 4 ] }, "postBreakMaximumFavorableExcursionR": { "samples": 1359, "mean": 1.953, "median": 1.416, "p25": 0.658, "p75": 2.618, "p90": 4.366, "medianCi95": [ 1.335, 1.515 ] }, "finalLocations": { "above": 552, "below": 532, "inside": 278 }, "finalInsideOpeningRange": { "successes": 278, "total": 1362, "ratePct": 20.4, "ci95Pct": [ 18.4, 22.6 ] }, "outcomes": { "r0_25": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 0.25, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 0.25 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 1359, "continuationFirst": 1078, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 278, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 1, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 2, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 1078, "total": 1356, "ratePct": 79.5, "ci95Pct": [ 77.3, 81.6 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 278, "total": 1356, "ratePct": 20.5, "ci95Pct": [ 18.4, 22.7 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 1078, "total": 1359, "ratePct": 79.3, "ci95Pct": [ 77.1, 81.4 ] } }, "r0_5": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 0.5, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 0.5 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 1359, "continuationFirst": 915, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 429, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 15, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 915, "total": 1344, "ratePct": 68.1, "ci95Pct": [ 65.5, 70.5 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 429, "total": 1344, "ratePct": 31.9, "ci95Pct": [ 29.5, 34.5 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 915, "total": 1359, "ratePct": 67.3, "ci95Pct": [ 64.8, 69.8 ] } }, "r1_0": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 1, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 1 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 1359, "continuationFirst": 665, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 632, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 62, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 665, "total": 1297, "ratePct": 51.3, "ci95Pct": [ 48.6, 54 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 632, "total": 1297, "ratePct": 48.7, "ci95Pct": [ 46, 51.4 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 665, "total": 1359, "ratePct": 48.9, "ci95Pct": [ 46.3, 51.6 ] } } } }, "byWeekday": [ { "weekday": "Monday", "qualifyingTests": 271, "openingRangeUsd": { "samples": 271, "mean": 4.7, "median": 2.87, "p25": 2.06, "p75": 4.39, "p90": 7.63, "medianCi95": [ 2.6, 3.18 ] }, "openingRangeTenths": { "samples": 271, "mean": 47, "median": 28.7, "p25": 20.6, "p75": 43.9, "p90": 76.3, "medianCi95": [ 26, 31.8 ] }, "evaluationRangeUsd": { "samples": 271, "mean": 15.16, "median": 10.4, "p25": 7.23, "p75": 15.89, "p90": 23.23, "medianCi95": [ 9.75, 11.57 ] }, "evaluationToOpeningRangeRatio": { "samples": 271, "mean": 3.856, "median": 3.42, "p25": 2.43, "p75": 4.795, "p90": 6.089, "medianCi95": [ 3.234, 3.625 ] }, "anyBoundaryBreak": { "successes": 271, "total": 271, "ratePct": 100, "ci95Pct": [ 98.6, 100 ] }, "breakoutClasses": { "high-only": 63, "low-only": 51, "both": 157, "none": 0 }, "breakoutClassRatesPct": { "high-only": 23.2, "low-only": 18.8, "both": 57.9, "none": 0 }, "firstSides": { "high": 156, "low": 115, "same-minute-ambiguous": 0, "none": 0 }, "firstHighAmongOrderedBreaks": { "successes": 156, "total": 271, "ratePct": 57.6, "ci95Pct": [ 51.6, 63.3 ] }, "orderedFirstBreakSamples": 271, "firstBreakMinutesAfterRange": { "samples": 271, "mean": 8, "median": 3, "p25": 1, "p75": 9, "p90": 17, "medianCi95": [ 3, 4 ] }, "postBreakMaximumFavorableExcursionR": { "samples": 271, "mean": 1.922, "median": 1.445, "p25": 0.659, "p75": 2.606, "p90": 4.348, "medianCi95": [ 1.246, 1.73 ] }, "finalLocations": { "above": 113, "below": 104, "inside": 54 }, "finalInsideOpeningRange": { "successes": 54, "total": 271, "ratePct": 19.9, "ci95Pct": [ 15.6, 25.1 ] }, "outcomes": { "r0_25": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 0.25, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 0.25 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 271, "continuationFirst": 212, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 58, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 1, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 212, "total": 270, "ratePct": 78.5, "ci95Pct": [ 73.2, 83 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 58, "total": 270, "ratePct": 21.5, "ci95Pct": [ 17, 26.8 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 212, "total": 271, "ratePct": 78.2, "ci95Pct": [ 72.9, 82.7 ] } }, "r0_5": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 0.5, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 0.5 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 271, "continuationFirst": 182, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 83, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 6, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 182, "total": 265, "ratePct": 68.7, "ci95Pct": [ 62.9, 74 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 83, "total": 265, "ratePct": 31.3, "ci95Pct": [ 26, 37.1 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 182, "total": 271, "ratePct": 67.2, "ci95Pct": [ 61.4, 72.5 ] } }, "r1_0": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 1, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 1 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 271, "continuationFirst": 133, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 123, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 15, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 133, "total": 256, "ratePct": 52, "ci95Pct": [ 45.8, 58 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 123, "total": 256, "ratePct": 48, "ci95Pct": [ 42, 54.2 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 133, "total": 271, "ratePct": 49.1, "ci95Pct": [ 43.2, 55 ] } } } }, { "weekday": "Tuesday", "qualifyingTests": 276, "openingRangeUsd": { "samples": 276, "mean": 3.91, "median": 2.78, "p25": 1.99, "p75": 4.63, "p90": 6.97, "medianCi95": [ 2.56, 3.04 ] }, "openingRangeTenths": { "samples": 276, "mean": 39.1, "median": 27.8, "p25": 19.9, "p75": 46.3, "p90": 69.7, "medianCi95": [ 25.6, 30.4 ] }, "evaluationRangeUsd": { "samples": 276, "mean": 14.32, "median": 9.88, "p25": 7.19, "p75": 15.22, "p90": 24.67, "medianCi95": [ 8.94, 10.84 ] }, "evaluationToOpeningRangeRatio": { "samples": 276, "mean": 4.01, "median": 3.4, "p25": 2.609, "p75": 4.872, "p90": 6.722, "medianCi95": [ 3.178, 3.707 ] }, "anyBoundaryBreak": { "successes": 276, "total": 276, "ratePct": 100, "ci95Pct": [ 98.6, 100 ] }, "breakoutClasses": { "high-only": 51, "low-only": 54, "both": 171, "none": 0 }, "breakoutClassRatesPct": { "high-only": 18.5, "low-only": 19.6, "both": 62, "none": 0 }, "firstSides": { "high": 138, "low": 138, "same-minute-ambiguous": 0, "none": 0 }, "firstHighAmongOrderedBreaks": { "successes": 138, "total": 276, "ratePct": 50, "ci95Pct": [ 44.1, 55.9 ] }, "orderedFirstBreakSamples": 276, "firstBreakMinutesAfterRange": { "samples": 276, "mean": 9, "median": 3, "p25": 0, "p75": 9, "p90": 23, "medianCi95": [ 2, 4 ] }, "postBreakMaximumFavorableExcursionR": { "samples": 276, "mean": 1.959, "median": 1.408, "p25": 0.679, "p75": 2.482, "p90": 4.425, "medianCi95": [ 1.181, 1.703 ] }, "finalLocations": { "above": 115, "below": 114, "inside": 47 }, "finalInsideOpeningRange": { "successes": 47, "total": 276, "ratePct": 17, "ci95Pct": [ 13.1, 21.9 ] }, "outcomes": { "r0_25": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 0.25, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 0.25 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 276, "continuationFirst": 228, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 47, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 1, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 228, "total": 275, "ratePct": 82.9, "ci95Pct": [ 78, 86.9 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 47, "total": 275, "ratePct": 17.1, "ci95Pct": [ 13.1, 22 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 228, "total": 276, "ratePct": 82.6, "ci95Pct": [ 77.7, 86.6 ] } }, "r0_5": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 0.5, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 0.5 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 276, "continuationFirst": 193, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 81, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 2, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 193, "total": 274, "ratePct": 70.4, "ci95Pct": [ 64.8, 75.5 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 81, "total": 274, "ratePct": 29.6, "ci95Pct": [ 24.5, 35.2 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 193, "total": 276, "ratePct": 69.9, "ci95Pct": [ 64.3, 75 ] } }, "r1_0": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 1, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 1 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 276, "continuationFirst": 137, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 124, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 15, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 137, "total": 261, "ratePct": 52.5, "ci95Pct": [ 46.4, 58.5 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 124, "total": 261, "ratePct": 47.5, "ci95Pct": [ 41.5, 53.6 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 137, "total": 276, "ratePct": 49.6, "ci95Pct": [ 43.8, 55.5 ] } } } }, { "weekday": "Wednesday", "qualifyingTests": 275, "openingRangeUsd": { "samples": 275, "mean": 3.95, "median": 2.77, "p25": 1.93, "p75": 4.33, "p90": 7.22, "medianCi95": [ 2.58, 2.93 ] }, "openingRangeTenths": { "samples": 275, "mean": 39.5, "median": 27.7, "p25": 19.3, "p75": 43.3, "p90": 72.2, "medianCi95": [ 25.8, 29.3 ] }, "evaluationRangeUsd": { "samples": 275, "mean": 13.66, "median": 9.62, "p25": 6.87, "p75": 15.19, "p90": 25.24, "medianCi95": [ 8.92, 10.64 ] }, "evaluationToOpeningRangeRatio": { "samples": 275, "mean": 3.84, "median": 3.448, "p25": 2.509, "p75": 4.786, "p90": 6.072, "medianCi95": [ 3.193, 3.74 ] }, "anyBoundaryBreak": { "successes": 274, "total": 275, "ratePct": 99.6, "ci95Pct": [ 98, 99.9 ] }, "breakoutClasses": { 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"continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 184, "total": 274, "ratePct": 67.2, "ci95Pct": [ 61.4, 72.4 ] } }, "r1_0": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 1, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 1 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 274, "continuationFirst": 137, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 126, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 0, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 11, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 137, "total": 263, "ratePct": 52.1, "ci95Pct": [ 46.1, 58.1 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 126, "total": 263, "ratePct": 47.9, "ci95Pct": [ 41.9, 53.9 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 137, "total": 274, "ratePct": 50, "ci95Pct": [ 44.1, 55.9 ] } } } }, { "weekday": "Thursday", "qualifyingTests": 273, "openingRangeUsd": { "samples": 273, "mean": 3.88, "median": 2.81, "p25": 2, "p75": 4.31, "p90": 7.66, "medianCi95": [ 2.6, 3.13 ] }, "openingRangeTenths": { "samples": 273, "mean": 38.8, "median": 28.1, "p25": 20, "p75": 43.1, "p90": 76.6, "medianCi95": [ 26, 31.3 ] }, "evaluationRangeUsd": { "samples": 273, "mean": 14.43, "median": 10.25, "p25": 7.24, "p75": 16.35, "p90": 25.56, "medianCi95": [ 9.39, 11.27 ] }, "evaluationToOpeningRangeRatio": { "samples": 273, "mean": 4.097, "median": 3.542, "p25": 2.658, "p75": 5.029, "p90": 6.844, "medianCi95": [ 3.334, 3.804 ] }, "anyBoundaryBreak": { "successes": 273, "total": 273, "ratePct": 100, "ci95Pct": [ 98.6, 100 ] }, "breakoutClasses": { "high-only": 46, "low-only": 44, "both": 183, "none": 0 }, "breakoutClassRatesPct": { "high-only": 16.8, "low-only": 16.1, "both": 67, "none": 0 }, "firstSides": { "high": 136, "low": 137, "same-minute-ambiguous": 0, "none": 0 }, "firstHighAmongOrderedBreaks": { "successes": 136, "total": 273, "ratePct": 49.8, "ci95Pct": [ 43.9, 55.7 ] }, "orderedFirstBreakSamples": 273, "firstBreakMinutesAfterRange": { "samples": 273, "mean": 7, "median": 3, "p25": 0, "p75": 9, "p90": 19, "medianCi95": [ 2, 3 ] }, "postBreakMaximumFavorableExcursionR": { "samples": 273, "mean": 2.029, "median": 1.411, "p25": 0.689, "p75": 2.616, "p90": 4.514, "medianCi95": [ 1.159, 1.667 ] }, "finalLocations": { "above": 110, "below": 103, "inside": 60 }, "finalInsideOpeningRange": { "successes": 60, "total": 273, "ratePct": 22, "ci95Pct": [ 17.5, 27.3 ] }, "outcomes": { "r0_25": { "targetOpeningRangeMultiple": 0.25, "targetDefinition": "Continuation reaches 0.25 times the opening-range size beyond the first-broken boundary.", "eligibleOrderedFirstBreaks": 273, "continuationFirst": 216, "oppositeBoundaryFirst": 56, "sameMinuteAmbiguous": 1, "unresolvedAtWindowEnd": 0, "continuationAmongResolved": { "successes": 216, "total": 272, "ratePct": 79.4, "ci95Pct": [ 74.2, 83.8 ] }, "falseBreakAmongResolved": { "successes": 56, "total": 272, "ratePct": 20.6, "ci95Pct": [ 16.2, 25.8 ] }, "continuationOfAllEligible": { "successes": 216, "total": 273, "ratePct": 79.1, "ci95Pct": [ 73.9, 83.5 ] } }, "r0_5": { 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