Phase 5 / Ordered path study
How often did the first XAUUSD opening-range break reverse?
A target ladder shows why “false breakout” has no honest single percentage—and preserves ambiguous and unresolved M1 paths.
At the 0.50R resolved definition, opposite-boundary-first measured 29.4% for the fixed 07:00 UTC range and 27.1% for 13:30 UTC. The percentage changes materially at 0.25R and 1.00R, so the target definition must accompany the claim.
There is no single XAUUSD false-break rate
This study calls a first break “false” only when a later complete M1 candle reaches the opposite opening-range boundary before the selected continuation target in an earlier complete minute. With a nearby 0.25R target, the 07:00 UTC 30-minute false-break share is 17.8% among resolved outcomes. With a full 1.00R target it becomes 45.0%. The 13:30 UTC sample moves from 16.2% at 0.25R to 43.8% at 1.00R.
The increase is mechanical as well as behavioral: a farther target gives price more opportunity to reach the opposite boundary first. Meanwhile, some tests reach neither event within four hours and others contain both thresholds in one M1 candle. Those records remain unresolved or ambiguous; they are never silently assigned to the winning side.
This definition is stricter than “price wicked outside and closed back inside.” It compares two ordered boundaries after the first break. A trader who uses a candle-close trigger, entry buffer, retest, fixed-dollar target, or midpoint invalidation is testing a different event and should not borrow these rates unchanged.
| Target | Eligible | Target first | Opposite first | Ambiguous | Unresolved | Continuation* | False break* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25R | 1,356 | 1,094 | 237 | 0 | 25 | 82.2% 95% CI 80.0-84.2% |
17.8% |
| 0.50R | 1,356 | 910 | 379 | 0 | 67 | 70.6% 95% CI 68.1-73.0% |
29.4% |
| 1.00R | 1,356 | 634 | 519 | 0 | 203 | 55.0% 95% CI 52.1-57.8% |
45.0% |
*Resolved denominator only: continuation-first plus opposite-first. Same-minute ambiguity and unresolved observations are reported separately.
| Target | Eligible | Target first | Opposite first | Ambiguous | Unresolved | Continuation* | False break* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25R | 1,330 | 1,028 | 199 | 1 | 102 | 83.8% 95% CI 81.6-85.7% |
16.2% |
| 0.50R | 1,330 | 821 | 305 | 0 | 204 | 72.9% 95% CI 70.2-75.4% |
27.1% |
| 1.00R | 1,330 | 519 | 404 | 0 | 407 | 56.2% 95% CI 53.0-59.4% |
43.8% |
*Resolved denominator only: continuation-first plus opposite-first. Same-minute ambiguity and unresolved observations are reported separately.
Opening-range size changes the path
A small box is easier to cross in both directions, while a large box demands more price movement. Quartiles are therefore calculated separately inside each clock-and-duration sample. They are retrospective thresholds, not a live recommendation, and the selected range is only known after its final minute closes.
| Range bucket | Tests | Median range | Any break | 0.50R continuation* | 0.50R false break* | Both sides |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 342 | $2.19 | 100.0% | 69.2% | 30.8% | 60.5% |
| Q2 | 339 | $3.26 | 100.0% | 72.3% | 27.7% | 51.0% |
| Q3 | 340 | $4.68 | 100.0% | 72.0% | 28.0% | 41.2% |
| Q4 | 341 | $8.82 | 98.2% | 68.7% | 31.3% | 39.6% |
Q1 is at or below $2.75, Q2 ends at $3.85, Q3 ends at $6.12, and Q4 is above $6.12. Thresholds belong only to this clock-and-duration sample. *Resolved outcomes.
| Range bucket | Tests | Median range | Any break | 0.50R continuation* | 0.50R false break* | Both sides |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 340 | $4.28 | 100.0% | 72.0% | 28.0% | 45.3% |
| Q2 | 340 | $6.37 | 98.8% | 73.1% | 26.9% | 32.6% |
| Q3 | 338 | $9.12 | 98.2% | 72.1% | 27.9% | 31.7% |
| Q4 | 339 | $16.89 | 95.3% | 74.9% | 25.1% | 25.1% |
Q1 is at or below $5.33, Q2 ends at $7.49, Q3 ends at $11.71, and Q4 is above $11.71. Thresholds belong only to this clock-and-duration sample. *Resolved outcomes.
Define failure before testing
- Name the continuation target and opposite boundary explicitly.
- Start ordering after the breakout candle unless finer data proves its path.
- Keep same-minute ambiguity separate.
- State how unresolved positions exit at the end of the window.
- Convert descriptive price events into net P&L only after adding executable costs and risk.
One exact source, fully fingerprinted
The Phase 5 analyzer reads the production XAUUSD binary directly. It verifies the four-byte candle count, expected byte length, every timestamp, and every OHLC row before calculating a range. The published JSON includes aggregate tables plus all 8,149 qualifying clock-and-duration observations.
| Source | M1 candles | Bytes | UTC coverage | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD_M1.bin | 1,871,487 | 37,429,744 | 2021-01-03 to 2026-04-30 | b3472e52f51bae343be941a8e8fb6dbdbc8749896c907b6ef77144b9b8c5cd63 |
0 duplicate timestamps0 out-of-order rows0 non-minute timestamps0 invalid OHLC rows
Open the Phase 5 evidence JSON
The file header declares 1,871,487 rows and its 37,429,744 bytes match exactly. Calendar coverage is 98.6% across eligible UTC weekdays. Missing periods are disclosed and never filled.
Exactly how every opening range was tested
1. Fix the clock
The two anchors are 07:00 UTC and 13:30 UTC. They never shift for daylight saving. “London” and “New York” are search-friendly clock labels, not assertions that one venue opens at the same UTC minute all year.
2. Build the box
The analyzer takes the highest bid high and lowest bid low in the first 15, 30, or 60 minutes. Every expected opening-range minute must be present; a gap disqualifies that test.
3. Observe four hours
The next 240 clock minutes form the evaluation window. At least 210 observed M1 candles are required. High-only, low-only, both-side, and no-break tests all remain visible.
4. Preserve order
Target-versus-opposite ordering starts on the minute after the first break. If both events share one later M1 candle, the record is ambiguous because OHLC cannot reveal the intrabar sequence.
Continuation targets are 0.25R, 0.50R, and 1.00R beyond the first-broken boundary, where R is that test's opening-range size. A high break and low break are strict inequalities; merely touching the recorded boundary is not counted.
Continue through the Phase 5 evidence
Replay the same market in the free XAUUSD backtester. Add your own entry, costs, stop, exit, and holdout period before treating any historical pattern as a strategy.
Questions answered by this dataset
What counts as a false XAUUSD opening-range breakout here?
After an ordered first break, the opposite opening-range boundary must be reached in an earlier complete M1 candle than the selected continuation extension.
Why does the false-break rate rise for a larger target?
A farther continuation target gives price more opportunity to reach the opposite boundary first and also leaves more paths unresolved by the four-hour cutoff.
Is a boundary-break rate the win rate of an XAUUSD strategy?
No. It reports whether an observed bid high or low crossed the opening-range boundary during the next four hours. No executable entry, stop, exit, costs, or position size is included.
Does the study adjust London and New York clocks for daylight saving?
No. The anchors stay fixed at 07:00 UTC and 13:30 UTC for reproducibility. The session names are clock-window shorthand.