Phase 5 / Weekday evidence
XAUUSD opening-range results by weekday
Monday-through-Friday samples expose where historical percentages differed—and why a descriptive weekday high still needs later confirmation.
For the 30-minute range, the highest descriptive resolved 0.50R continuation rate was 73.5% at 07:00 UTC and 79.5% at 13:30 UTC. These post-sample rankings are not confirmed forecasts.
What changed by weekday
For the fixed 07:00 UTC 30-minute range, Monday has the highest observed resolved 0.50R continuation rate at 73.5%, while Tuesday is lowest at 68.7%. The subgroup sizes are 271 and 276 tests. At 13:30 UTC, Thursday is highest at 79.5% and Wednesday is lowest at 68.5%.
These rankings are descriptive. Five weekday groups were examined at two clocks, and the evidence also exposes three range lengths, three targets, and four size quartiles. Selecting the largest cell after looking at all of them increases false-discovery risk. A weekday rule should be written before a later holdout period is opened.
Weekday labels are UTC calendar weekdays. They do not adjust the 07:00 or 13:30 anchors when London or New York changes daylight-saving time. Scheduled event mix also differs across weekdays and years; this analysis does not tag central-bank decisions, inflation releases, payrolls, holidays, or month-end flows.
| UTC weekday | Tests | Median range | Any break | 0.50R continuation* | 0.50R false break* | Both sides |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 271 | $3.97 | 100.0% | 73.5% | 26.5% | 40.6% |
| Tuesday | 276 | $3.97 | 99.6% | 68.7% | 31.3% | 50.0% |
| Wednesday | 275 | $3.72 | 100.0% | 70.2% | 29.8% | 49.1% |
| Thursday | 273 | $3.78 | 100.0% | 69.7% | 30.3% | 52.4% |
| Friday | 267 | $3.75 | 98.1% | 70.9% | 29.1% | 48.3% |
*Resolved ordered outcomes. These weekday slices were inspected after the full sample and are descriptive, not independently confirmed signals.
| UTC weekday | Tests | Median range | Any break | 0.50R continuation* | 0.50R false break* | Both sides |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 268 | $6.82 | 98.1% | 73.5% | 26.5% | 33.2% |
| Tuesday | 275 | $7.23 | 98.2% | 73.5% | 26.5% | 36.4% |
| Wednesday | 275 | $7.72 | 97.5% | 68.5% | 31.5% | 37.1% |
| Thursday | 273 | $8.31 | 97.8% | 79.5% | 20.5% | 26.4% |
| Friday | 266 | $7.63 | 98.9% | 69.8% | 30.2% | 35.3% |
*Resolved ordered outcomes. These weekday slices were inspected after the full sample and are descriptive, not independently confirmed signals.
Rates need counts and uncertainty
Every row retains the number of qualifying tests, the break rate, median box size, both-side share, and the resolved continuation/false-break split. The machine-readable evidence also includes Wilson 95% intervals and the exact ambiguous and unresolved counts for each subgroup. A narrow interval around a historical proportion still does not prove the effect will persist after costs.
Use weekday data to formulate a small number of hypotheses. For example, compare one predeclared Thursday rule with the same rule on all other days, then repeat it on later unseen dates. Do not keep changing the duration, target, clock, and quartile until a preferred percentage appears.
Weekday evidence checklist
- Record the timezone and daylight-saving policy.
- Keep no-break, ambiguous, and unresolved outcomes.
- Report counts beside percentages.
- Correct for repeated comparisons or confirm once on a holdout.
- Add spread, slippage, news filters, and risk rules before evaluating P&L.
One exact source, fully fingerprinted
The Phase 5 analyzer reads the production XAUUSD binary directly. It verifies the four-byte candle count, expected byte length, every timestamp, and every OHLC row before calculating a range. The published JSON includes aggregate tables plus all 8,149 qualifying clock-and-duration observations.
| Source | M1 candles | Bytes | UTC coverage | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD_M1.bin | 1,871,487 | 37,429,744 | 2021-01-03 to 2026-04-30 | b3472e52f51bae343be941a8e8fb6dbdbc8749896c907b6ef77144b9b8c5cd63 |
0 duplicate timestamps0 out-of-order rows0 non-minute timestamps0 invalid OHLC rows
Open the Phase 5 evidence JSON
The file header declares 1,871,487 rows and its 37,429,744 bytes match exactly. Calendar coverage is 98.6% across eligible UTC weekdays. Missing periods are disclosed and never filled.
Exactly how every opening range was tested
1. Fix the clock
The two anchors are 07:00 UTC and 13:30 UTC. They never shift for daylight saving. “London” and “New York” are search-friendly clock labels, not assertions that one venue opens at the same UTC minute all year.
2. Build the box
The analyzer takes the highest bid high and lowest bid low in the first 15, 30, or 60 minutes. Every expected opening-range minute must be present; a gap disqualifies that test.
3. Observe four hours
The next 240 clock minutes form the evaluation window. At least 210 observed M1 candles are required. High-only, low-only, both-side, and no-break tests all remain visible.
4. Preserve order
Target-versus-opposite ordering starts on the minute after the first break. If both events share one later M1 candle, the record is ambiguous because OHLC cannot reveal the intrabar sequence.
Continuation targets are 0.25R, 0.50R, and 1.00R beyond the first-broken boundary, where R is that test's opening-range size. A high break and low break are strict inequalities; merely touching the recorded boundary is not counted.
Continue through the Phase 5 evidence
Replay the same market in the free XAUUSD backtester. Add your own entry, costs, stop, exit, and holdout period before treating any historical pattern as a strategy.
Questions answered by this dataset
What was the best weekday for the XAUUSD opening range?
In the full 30-minute descriptive sample, Monday was highest at the fixed 07:00 UTC clock and Thursday was highest at 13:30 UTC for resolved 0.50R continuation. The rankings were selected after inspection and need holdout confirmation.
Are the weekday percentages adjusted for gold news?
No. The study does not tag inflation, payroll, central-bank, holiday, or month-end events.
Is a boundary-break rate the win rate of an XAUUSD strategy?
No. It reports whether an observed bid high or low crossed the opening-range boundary during the next four hours. No executable entry, stop, exit, costs, or position size is included.
Does the study adjust London and New York clocks for daylight saving?
No. The anchors stay fixed at 07:00 UTC and 13:30 UTC for reproducibility. The session names are clock-window shorthand.