CPI. GDP. PMI. FOMC minutes. Retail sales. Every major USD news release from January 2023 to December 2024. 96 events total. EURUSD only. I entered 5 minutes before each release with a 20-pip stop in both directions (straddle). When the news hit, one side triggered. Let the other cancel. Results:
| Event Type | Events | Win Rate | Avg Pip Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 24 | 33% | -11.2 |
| FOMC | 16 | 31% | -14.8 |
| NFP | 24 | 42% | -3.1 |
| GDP | 8 | 25% | -22.4 |
| PMI / Retail / Others | 24 | 38% | -8.6 |
Every event type lost money. Every single one. The straddle strategy — which every news trading course teaches — is a net loser across 96 events. Not one winning category.
The straddle relies on a clean breakout after the news. But in 68% of events, price whipsawed — spiking 15 pips in one direction, triggering the entry, then reversing 25 pips in the other direction and hitting the stop. The initial spike is algorithmic noise. The real move comes 10-30 minutes later, after the market digests the number in context of expectations. But by then, your stop is already hit.
FOMC was the worst. Minutes releases caused 3-4 whipsaws within 10 minutes as algos parsed every sentence. GDP was the second worst — big surprise, big spike, bigger reversal. The market doesn't reward speed during news. It rewards patience after the noise settles.