Every forex forum has the same debate: London session is king vs New York has the best liquidity. Nobody backs it up with numbers. So I did.
I ran the identical breakout strategy on GBPUSD across 3 years (2023-2025) — once during London hours, once during New York hours. Everything identical except the clock. Here's the verdict.
| Metric | London (8-12 GMT) | New York (13-17 GMT) |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 51.7% | 43.3% |
| Profit Factor | 1.82 | 0.94 |
| Average RR | 1.7 : 1 | 1.2 : 1 |
| Total Pips (net) | +1,847 | -342 |
| Avg Pips Per Trade | +10.3 | -1.9 |
London had nearly double the profit factor of New York. New York was actually net negative across 180 trades — you'd have lost money trading a perfectly fine strategy simply because you picked the wrong session.
Why? Two reasons showed up repeatedly in the data:
1. Cleaner breakouts. London opens with momentum from overnight Asian ranges. The first 2 hours produce directional moves that hit the 40-pip target cleanly. New York often opens into a market that's already chosen a direction during London — you're entering late.
2. Fakeouts are worse in NY. New York's overlap with London (13:00-17:00 GMT) creates whipsaws. A breakout that looks real at 13:00 often reverses by 16:00 as London traders close positions. My NY trades hit TP only 43% of the time — the rest either stopped out or reversed before target.
There was one notable exception: NFP Fridays. On Non-Farm Payroll Friday, New York performed significantly better (win rate 62% vs London's 48%). The 13:30 GMT news release is purely a NY event, and the volatility afterward actually helped the breakout strategy.
But that's 12 days a year. For the other 240+ trading days, London dominates.