Non-Farm Payrolls. The most volatile 15 minutes in forex every month. Every trader has an opinion: "You have to trade it" vs "I always stay flat." I wanted to settle it with numbers, not opinions.
I backtested every NFP release from January 2023 to December 2025 — 36 events total — on both EURUSD (mild volatility) and XAUUSD (extreme volatility). Same strategy on both. Here's the truth.
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Win Rate | 47.2% (17 wins, 19 losses) |
| Profit Factor | 1.12 |
| Net Pips | +84 |
| Avg Pips Per NFP | +2.3 |
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Win Rate | 61.1% (22 wins, 14 losses) |
| Profit Factor | 2.48 |
| Net Pips | +1,012 |
| Avg Pips Per NFP | +28.1 |
If you trade EURUSD on NFP — stay flat. The 1.12 profit factor is barely above breakeven, and 84 net pips over 3 years works out to about 2 pips per event. That's not worth the stress. A single spread widening event or slippage simulation (which my backtest didn't even include) would wipe those gains.
But XAUUSD is a completely different story. Gold loves NFP. The data is undeniable: 61% win rate, 2.48 profit factor, consistent returns. Why? Because NFP drives the US Dollar index, and gold is the anti-dollar. When NFP surprises, gold moves — hard — and the momentum tends to continue for 30-60 minutes after the release.