Phase 4 / Interactive evidence lab
London breakout probability explorer
Choose the pair, weekday, and target. The browser recomputes results from day-level observations instead of displaying a fixed marketing percentage.
The explorer contains 1,334 EURUSD and 1,325 GBPUSD qualifying weekdays. It exposes continuation, opposite-first, ambiguous, and unresolved outcomes for three target distances, with source hashes and Wilson confidence intervals.
Interactive artifact
Loading verified evidence...Filter the evidence
Select a pair, weekday, and continuation target. Every card is recomputed in your browser from the published daily observations.
Ordered outcomes
Waiting for evidence.
Range context
Audit counts
Why this explorer is different from a win-rate calculator
The controls do not manufacture a profitability claim. They expose four mutually exclusive outcome classes: continuation first, opposite boundary first, same-minute ambiguous, and unresolved by 16:00 UTC. The displayed confidence interval is computed from the selected resolved outcomes, while the audit panel preserves the full selected denominator.
Filtering is descriptive. Trying many combinations and selecting the largest historical percentage creates selection bias. Use the artifact to form a clear hypothesis, then test that complete rule on a later period with real spread, slippage, stops, and execution constraints.
How to read continuation and false-break rates
Suppose the Asian range is 40 pips and the high breaks first. A 0.50R continuation requires a later complete M1 candle to print at least 20 pips above the Asian high before a prior complete minute breaks the Asian low. If the low breaks first, the calculation is mirrored. The first breakout candle is excluded from this ordering test because OHLC alone cannot reveal which price occurred first inside that minute.
The phrase false break is target-dependent here. It means the opposite Asian boundary appeared before the stated extension. A date can be a false break under the 1.00R definition but a continuation under 0.25R. That is why this study publishes a ladder of targets instead of one promotional win-rate number.
Explorer guardrails
- All calculations start with the public daily observations.
- No unresolved date is silently labeled a failure or success.
- The displayed interval measures sampling uncertainty, not future certainty.
- The tool describes boundary events, not trade P&L.
Audit the inputs, exclusions, and every qualifying date
This page is generated from the same two binary files served by FXAbsolute. The analyzer validates each header and every timestamp before producing a result. The public evidence file includes the full SHA-256, coverage audit, filter counts, confidence intervals, and a compact observation for every qualifying instrument-day.
| Source | M1 candles | Qualifying days | Coverage | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD_M1.bin | 1,911,141 | 1,334 | 96.4% | 5afa4be2ed37b3170c58f71a86d943ac1216639bc4d64b312603e6072901a9dd |
| GBPUSD_M1.bin | 1,898,746 | 1,325 | 95.8% | ed16e48b0be764c42fe55dd1aacf3f028c519685f18c45ba226f646773bd1e10 |
Open the machine-readable proof JSON
Validation result: zero duplicate timestamps, zero out-of-order timestamps, zero non-minute timestamps, zero invalid OHLC rows, and exact header-length matches in both files. Missing dates and under-covered windows are reported; no candle is synthesized.
Exactly what was tested
1. Build the reference range
For each UTC weekday, the analyzer takes the highest bid high and lowest bid low observed from 00:00 through 07:59 UTC. At least 420 of the possible 480 M1 candles must exist.
2. Observe the next window
Boundary breaks are measured from 08:00 through 15:59 UTC, again requiring at least 420 observed candles. A high or low must move strictly beyond the reference boundary; an equal print is not a break.
3. Preserve event order
The first boundary is found in timestamp order. Ordered target-versus-opposite results begin with the following complete minute. If both thresholds appear inside one M1 bar, the date is labeled ambiguous.
4. Publish unresolved cases
A date that reaches neither the continuation target nor the opposite boundary by 16:00 UTC is unresolved. It stays in the denominator where stated and is never converted into a win or loss.
The continuation distances are expressed as a fraction of that date's own Asian range: 0.25R, 0.50R, and 1.00R. This normalization makes a 20-pip reference day comparable with a 60-pip reference day without pretending that their cash risk is the same.
Continue through the Phase 4 evidence
Replay the underlying markets in the EURUSD backtester or GBPUSD backtester with your own entry, cost, stop, and exit rules.
Questions this dataset can answer
What does the breakout probability explorer calculate?
It filters the published daily evidence by pair and weekday, then counts boundary breaks and ordered outcomes for a selected 0.25R, 0.50R, or 1.00R target.
Are unresolved dates included?
Yes. They are shown as a separate count. Resolved-only percentages state their denominator, and the audit panel retains every selected eligible first break.
Does this prove the London breakout strategy is profitable?
No. It proves historical boundary-break and ordered price-event frequencies in bid M1 data. Profitability requires a fully specified entry, spread, slippage, stop, exit, position size, and risk rule.
What is the Asian range in this test?
The Asian reference range is the highest bid high minus the lowest bid low observed from 00:00 through 07:59 UTC on a weekday. This is a fixed research window and does not shift for daylight saving.