Phase 4 / Matched comparison
EURUSD vs GBPUSD London breakout evidence
The same dates, the same clock windows, independent coverage filters, and pair-specific results instead of a loose comparison of averages.
Both EURUSD and GBPUSD broke an Asian boundary on the same date in 96.9% of 1,276 matched days. Their ordered first-break direction agreed 74.1% of the time, while GBPUSD had the larger Asian range on 77.6% of matched dates.
EURUSD and GBPUSD were related, not interchangeable
The matched comparison retains 1,276 dates on which both instruments independently passed both window-coverage filters. Both pairs broke at least one Asian boundary on 1,237 dates, or 96.9%. EURUSD broke alone on 24 dates and GBPUSD alone on 15; neither pair failed together in this matched sample.
When both pairs produced an ordered first break, the direction agreed 74.1% of the time. That leaves more than one quarter of jointly active dates with different first-break directions. The Asian-range sizes had Pearson correlation 0.671, while the later-window expansion ratios correlated 0.643. Correlation describes co-movement in these measurements; it does not prove one pair leads the other.
Matched result table
| Measure | EURUSD | GBPUSD |
|---|---|---|
| Any boundary break | 98.8% | 98.1% |
| Median Asian range | 29.5 pips | 39.1 pips |
| Median next-window range | 52.6 pips | 67.7 pips |
| Median first break after 08:00 | 32 minutes | 30 minutes |
| 0.50R continuation among resolved | 72.0% | 71.2% |
| Closed back inside Asian range | 33.6% | 35.7% |
How to read continuation and false-break rates
Suppose the Asian range is 40 pips and the high breaks first. A 0.50R continuation requires a later complete M1 candle to print at least 20 pips above the Asian high before a prior complete minute breaks the Asian low. If the low breaks first, the calculation is mirrored. The first breakout candle is excluded from this ordering test because OHLC alone cannot reveal which price occurred first inside that minute.
The phrase false break is target-dependent here. It means the opposite Asian boundary appeared before the stated extension. A date can be a false break under the 1.00R definition but a continuation under 0.25R. That is why this study publishes a ladder of targets instead of one promotional win-rate number.
Why the larger GBPUSD range is not automatically better
GBPUSD printed a larger Asian range than EURUSD on 990 of 1,276 matched dates. Larger movement can provide more gross distance, but it also changes stop width, spread impact, position size, and the likelihood that two correlated positions duplicate risk. This study deliberately does not turn pips into a recommendation.
The similar 0.50R continuation rates are more important than a small ranking difference. A robust workflow treats pair choice, entry buffer, stop definition, exit, and transaction costs as a complete rule set, then tests the pair-specific results. The published comparison is a baseline for that work.
Comparison takeaways
- Both pairs were active on the same date 96.9% of the matched sample.
- First-break direction agreed 74.1% of the time, so duplicated exposure is real but not guaranteed.
- GBPUSD usually had the larger absolute pip range; normalized continuation was much closer.
- No result establishes causation, lead-lag order, or net profitability.
Audit the inputs, exclusions, and every qualifying date
This page is generated from the same two binary files served by FXAbsolute. The analyzer validates each header and every timestamp before producing a result. The public evidence file includes the full SHA-256, coverage audit, filter counts, confidence intervals, and a compact observation for every qualifying instrument-day.
| Source | M1 candles | Qualifying days | Coverage | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD_M1.bin | 1,911,141 | 1,334 | 96.4% | 5afa4be2ed37b3170c58f71a86d943ac1216639bc4d64b312603e6072901a9dd |
| GBPUSD_M1.bin | 1,898,746 | 1,325 | 95.8% | ed16e48b0be764c42fe55dd1aacf3f028c519685f18c45ba226f646773bd1e10 |
Open the machine-readable proof JSON
Validation result: zero duplicate timestamps, zero out-of-order timestamps, zero non-minute timestamps, zero invalid OHLC rows, and exact header-length matches in both files. Missing dates and under-covered windows are reported; no candle is synthesized.
Exactly what was tested
1. Build the reference range
For each UTC weekday, the analyzer takes the highest bid high and lowest bid low observed from 00:00 through 07:59 UTC. At least 420 of the possible 480 M1 candles must exist.
2. Observe the next window
Boundary breaks are measured from 08:00 through 15:59 UTC, again requiring at least 420 observed candles. A high or low must move strictly beyond the reference boundary; an equal print is not a break.
3. Preserve event order
The first boundary is found in timestamp order. Ordered target-versus-opposite results begin with the following complete minute. If both thresholds appear inside one M1 bar, the date is labeled ambiguous.
4. Publish unresolved cases
A date that reaches neither the continuation target nor the opposite boundary by 16:00 UTC is unresolved. It stays in the denominator where stated and is never converted into a win or loss.
The continuation distances are expressed as a fraction of that date's own Asian range: 0.25R, 0.50R, and 1.00R. This normalization makes a 20-pip reference day comparable with a 60-pip reference day without pretending that their cash risk is the same.
Continue through the Phase 4 evidence
Replay the underlying markets in the EURUSD backtester or GBPUSD backtester with your own entry, cost, stop, and exit rules.
Questions this dataset can answer
Does EURUSD or GBPUSD have the better London breakout?
The matched 0.50R continuation rates are close and this study does not model costs, stops, or exits. GBPUSD usually has the larger pip range, but larger movement is not the same as a superior risk-adjusted strategy.
Do EURUSD and GBPUSD break in the same direction?
Among 1,237 matched dates with ordered first breaks in both pairs, direction agreed 74.1% of the time.
Does this prove the London breakout strategy is profitable?
No. It proves historical boundary-break and ordered price-event frequencies in bid M1 data. Profitability requires a fully specified entry, spread, slippage, stop, exit, position size, and risk rule.
What is the Asian range in this test?
The Asian reference range is the highest bid high minus the lowest bid low observed from 00:00 through 07:59 UTC on a weekday. This is a fixed research window and does not shift for daylight saving.