Phase 4 / False-break study
How often did the first Asian-range break reverse?
Three continuation distances expose why a false-break percentage is meaningless unless the target, deadline, ordering, and ambiguous bars are defined.
At a 0.25R continuation target, the opposite boundary came first on 15.4% of resolved EURUSD breaks and 15.6% of resolved GBPUSD breaks. At 1.00R, those rates rose to 45.9% and 48.2%.
A false-break rate has no meaning without a target
Using a 0.25R continuation target, the opposite Asian boundary arrived first on 184 resolved EURUSD dates and 186 resolved GBPUSD dates. That produced false-break rates of 15.4% and 15.6% respectively. At a full 1.00R target, the same definition rose to 45.9% for EURUSD and 48.2% for GBPUSD.
The increase is not a contradiction. A first break can extend 0.25R, later reverse through the opposite boundary, and never reach 1.00R. That date is continuation under the smaller target and opposite-first under the larger target. Marketing a single 'false breakout percentage' without its distance, deadline, price side, and ambiguity rule is incomplete.
False-break evidence ladder
| Continuation target | EURUSD false break | GBPUSD false break | EUR unresolved | GBP unresolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25R | 15.4% (184/1,195) | 15.6% (186/1,194) | 120 | 107 |
| 0.50R | 27.7% (293/1,057) | 28.6% (301/1,051) | 257 | 248 |
| 1R | 45.9% (376/820) | 48.2% (383/795) | 495 | 505 |
How to read continuation and false-break rates
Suppose the Asian range is 40 pips and the high breaks first. A 0.50R continuation requires a later complete M1 candle to print at least 20 pips above the Asian high before a prior complete minute breaks the Asian low. If the low breaks first, the calculation is mirrored. The first breakout candle is excluded from this ordering test because OHLC alone cannot reveal which price occurred first inside that minute.
The phrase false break is target-dependent here. It means the opposite Asian boundary appeared before the stated extension. A date can be a false break under the 1.00R definition but a continuation under 0.25R. That is why this study publishes a ladder of targets instead of one promotional win-rate number.
Why both-side days and false breaks are different
Both Asian boundaries eventually broke on 31.1% of EURUSD dates and 31.4% of GBPUSD dates. That unconditional class ignores whether a continuation target was reached first. The false-break calculation preserves order and uses a stated extension. A date can therefore break both sides without being a false break at 0.25R.
The evidence also separates unresolved dates. At 1.00R, 495 EURUSD and 505 GBPUSD first-break dates reached neither the full extension nor the opposite boundary by the deadline. Excluding these dates can make a resolved-only percentage look more decisive, so both resolved and all-eligible rates are published.
False-break takeaways
- For a 0.25R target, about fifteen percent of resolved first breaks hit the opposite boundary first.
- For a 1.00R target, the resolved split moved close to fifty-fifty.
- Same-minute ambiguity is rare but explicitly retained.
- The result is not a stop-loss rate because no stop, spread, or entry buffer was modeled.
Audit the inputs, exclusions, and every qualifying date
This page is generated from the same two binary files served by FXAbsolute. The analyzer validates each header and every timestamp before producing a result. The public evidence file includes the full SHA-256, coverage audit, filter counts, confidence intervals, and a compact observation for every qualifying instrument-day.
| Source | M1 candles | Qualifying days | Coverage | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD_M1.bin | 1,911,141 | 1,334 | 96.4% | 5afa4be2ed37b3170c58f71a86d943ac1216639bc4d64b312603e6072901a9dd |
| GBPUSD_M1.bin | 1,898,746 | 1,325 | 95.8% | ed16e48b0be764c42fe55dd1aacf3f028c519685f18c45ba226f646773bd1e10 |
Open the machine-readable proof JSON
Validation result: zero duplicate timestamps, zero out-of-order timestamps, zero non-minute timestamps, zero invalid OHLC rows, and exact header-length matches in both files. Missing dates and under-covered windows are reported; no candle is synthesized.
Exactly what was tested
1. Build the reference range
For each UTC weekday, the analyzer takes the highest bid high and lowest bid low observed from 00:00 through 07:59 UTC. At least 420 of the possible 480 M1 candles must exist.
2. Observe the next window
Boundary breaks are measured from 08:00 through 15:59 UTC, again requiring at least 420 observed candles. A high or low must move strictly beyond the reference boundary; an equal print is not a break.
3. Preserve event order
The first boundary is found in timestamp order. Ordered target-versus-opposite results begin with the following complete minute. If both thresholds appear inside one M1 bar, the date is labeled ambiguous.
4. Publish unresolved cases
A date that reaches neither the continuation target nor the opposite boundary by 16:00 UTC is unresolved. It stays in the denominator where stated and is never converted into a win or loss.
The continuation distances are expressed as a fraction of that date's own Asian range: 0.25R, 0.50R, and 1.00R. This normalization makes a 20-pip reference day comparable with a 60-pip reference day without pretending that their cash risk is the same.
Continue through the Phase 4 evidence
Replay the underlying markets in the EURUSD backtester or GBPUSD backtester with your own entry, cost, stop, and exit rules.
Questions this dataset can answer
How often is an Asian range breakout false?
Under the study's 0.25R resolved-outcome definition, 15.4% of EURUSD and 15.6% of GBPUSD first breaks reached the opposite boundary before the target. The rate changes with the target.
Why is the 1.00R false-break rate higher?
A full-range continuation is farther away than a quarter-range continuation. More first breaks reach the opposite boundary before the larger target, and more remain unresolved by 16:00 UTC.
Does this prove the London breakout strategy is profitable?
No. It proves historical boundary-break and ordered price-event frequencies in bid M1 data. Profitability requires a fully specified entry, spread, slippage, stop, exit, position size, and risk rule.
What is the Asian range in this test?
The Asian reference range is the highest bid high minus the lowest bid low observed from 00:00 through 07:59 UTC on a weekday. This is a fixed research window and does not shift for daylight saving.