Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says
Gaps by instrument
| Instrument | Unit | Median | 95th | Weekend 95th | Largest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | pips (0.1) | 0.27 | 28.14 | 134.54 | 1119.37 |
| GBP/JPY | pips | 0.2 | 32.94 | 64.91 | 314.7 |
| EUR/JPY | pips | 0.1 | 27.2 | 59.4 | 270.1 |
| USD/JPY | pips | 0.1 | 20.6 | 36.66 | 316.5 |
| GBP/USD | pips | 0.1 | 18.43 | 30.9 | 254.1 |
| AUD/CAD | pips | 0.1 | 16.59 | 26.08 | 97.7 |
| EUR/USD | pips | 0.1 | 12.9 | 23.44 | 163.5 |
| AUD/USD | pips | 0.1 | 11.07 | 22.36 | 158.5 |
| USD/CAD | pips | 0.1 | 12.34 | 20.4 | 209.5 |
| EUR/GBP | pips | 0.1 | 11.99 | 16.95 | 71.3 |
The median is not the risk
Half of all gaps are smaller than a spread, which is why gap risk feels theoretical until it is not. The number that matters is the tail: one open in twenty on Gold (XAU/USD) jumps 134.54 or more, and the largest in this sample was 1119.37. A stop placed inside that distance was not honoured at its price.
What a backtest does with a gap
Most replay a stop as filled exactly where it sat. Reality fills at the first available price after the open, which on a gapped Monday can be well beyond it. The difference is not noise — it is the difference between a strategy that survives a bad weekend and one that only survives in the record.
The practical correction is to test what happens when the worst gap in this table lands on an open position, rather than to assume it will not.
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Questions
How big is a typical forex weekend gap?
Small — GBP/USD's median close-to-open gap is 0.1 pips. The risk is in the tail: the 95th percentile weekend gap is 30.9 pips and the largest in the sample was 254.1.
Which instrument gaps the most?
Of those measured here, Gold (XAU/USD), with a 95th-percentile weekend gap of 134.54 pips (0.1).
Do stop losses work over the weekend?
A stop is an instruction to exit at the first available price once the level trades, not a guarantee of that price. When the market reopens beyond it, the fill is beyond it too. That is exactly what most backtests do not model.
How were these gaps measured?
As the absolute difference between one trading day's closing price and the next trading day's opening price, across 1,594 such transitions per instrument.
Beginner exploration
Three questions to help you use this page
Open each answer for a plain-language way to read Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says, test it carefully and decide what to explore next.
What does “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” mean for a beginner?
This page focuses on “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says”.Measured close-to-open gaps for 10 instruments. Median gaps are small, but the 95th percentile reaches 134.54 on Gold (XAU/USD) — the distance a stop can be skipped by.For “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says”, a beginner should identify what the evidence guide measures, assumes or teaches before acting on its conclusion.Treat this page's account of “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” as a learning reference rather than a prediction, signal or promise of future performance.
How should a beginner use this page to explore “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says”?
For “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says”, confirm the population, sample size, clock, units and calculation behind the headline number.While exploring “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says”, compare the median, spread of outcomes and exceptions instead of reading only the average or best row.Keep your “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” record honest: use the statistic to frame a test or risk assumption, not to predict the next candle.Before leaving “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says”, recheck the result on a separate period before turning a descriptive pattern into a rule.
How can AI help explore “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” responsibly?
Turn one idea from “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” into a rule with explicit inputs, dates, costs and pass-or-fail conditions.Ask AI to expose missing assumptions in that “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” test, not to guess the next market move.Use the FXAbsolute AI Backtesting Lab to inspect calculations connected to “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” and the assumptions behind them.Reproduce any important “Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says” result and reserve unseen data before deciding that an apparent pattern is useful.
Continue your exploration of Weekend Gaps: What the Data Says with the beginner AI prompt guide, or inspect public calculations in the AI Backtesting Lab.