Expectancy
Expected R per trade equals win probability times average win minus loss probability times average loss, after all costs. Estimates carry sampling error.
Editorially reviewed 24 August 2026
An expected trade count is not a deadline
MARGIN 42Dividing a profit target by average expectancy gives an expected trade count under strong assumptions; it does not tell you when a target will be reached. Wins and losses arrive in uncertain order, account risk may compound, and daily or total limits can end a path before its average appears.
Use cost-aware win and loss distributions, chronological constraints, lot rounding, and the current official objective from a dated rule sheet. Simulate many paths and report target probability by horizon, breach probability, median completion time among passes, and the full share that never reaches the target.
Expected R per trade equals win probability times average win minus loss probability times average loss, after all costs. Estimates carry sampling error.
Profit objectives and loss limits are competing absorbing boundaries. Sequence decides which one is touched first.
Prefer distributions across realistic simulations: target rate, breach rate, time-to-target quantiles, maximum drawdown, and unresolved paths.
A calculator can describe assumptions precisely; it cannot remove uncertainty from the order of trades.
| Input | Definition | Sensitivity to test |
|---|---|---|
| T | Current official net objective in account currency | Product or phase change |
| r | Account currency risked per one R after sizing constraints | Reduced risk near a loss floor |
| p | Estimated win probability from unseen observations | Confidence interval, regime shift |
| W and L | Distributions of realised winning and losing R, not advertised targets | Partial exits, gaps, missed fills |
| C | Spread, commission, slippage, swap, and other per-trade costs in R | Normal and stressed execution |
This ratio is not a forecast or a safe deadline. It suppresses variance and assumes stable, sufficiently independent observations with constant sizing. If the estimate is near zero, small input error dominates the answer.
Show target-first, breach-first, and unresolved proportions; median and upper-percentile trades or days among completed paths; lowest buffer; maximum drawdown; and concentration by setup. Include input ranges and sample size beside the output. A single “trades needed” number conceals nearly all decision risk.
Calculator limit: estimated probabilities inherit every bias in the sample, dependence model, fill assumptions, and current rule snapshot.
One reproducible testing idea, with its rules, limitations, and review questions made explicit. In your inbox every week.
Measured from 28 million candles
Beginner exploration
Open each answer for a plain-language way to read Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline, test it carefully and decide what to explore next.
This page focuses on “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline”.Model prop-firm target paths with net expectancy, competing loss barriers, chronological or resampled sequences, breach rate, and time-to-target distributions.For “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline”, a beginner should identify what the interactive tool measures, assumes or teaches before acting on its conclusion.Treat this page's account of “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline” as a learning reference rather than a prediction, signal or promise of future performance.
For “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline”, run a baseline with inputs you can verify before experimenting with optimistic or extreme values.While exploring “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline”, change one input at a time so you can see which assumption moved the result.Keep your “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline” record honest: save the inputs beside the output because a number without its settings cannot be reproduced.Before leaving “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline”, treat the result as a scenario to investigate, not as an instruction to place a trade.
Turn one idea from “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline” into a rule with explicit inputs, dates, costs and pass-or-fail conditions.Ask AI to expose missing assumptions in that “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline” test, not to guess the next market move.Use the FXAbsolute AI Backtesting Lab to inspect calculations connected to “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline” and the assumptions behind them.Reproduce any important “Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline” result and reserve unseen data before deciding that an apparent pattern is useful.
Continue your exploration of Prop-Firm Profit Target Calculator: Model a Distribution, Not a Deadline with the beginner AI prompt guide, or inspect public calculations in the AI Backtesting Lab.