10 Trading Strategies Tested on 9 Markets Over 5 Years
We wrote down the rules of 10 strategies people talk about online and ran each one on 9 markets, from October 2021 to September 2026, on one-minute candles. 105,319 simulated trades in all.
22 of the 90 strategy and market results made money after spread. Supertrend + 200 EMA made money on the most markets (6 of 9). EMA 9 / 21 crossover made money on 0. The largest result was Supertrend + 200 EMA on USDJPY, at +105%. Which strategy did best changed from market to market, and on gold, buy and hold (+137.1%) beat all 10.
All results at a glance
| Strategy | Markets up | Gold | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | NAS100 | US30 | SPX500 | Bitcoin | Ethereum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | 6 of 9 | +25.7% | −30.5% | −6.9% | +105% | +37.5% | −1.4% | +9.6% | +68% | +67% |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | 6 of 9 | +17.5% | −6.9% | −2.9% | +14.2% | +8.6% | −14% | +0.3% | +17.3% | +12% |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | 3 of 9 | +54.1% | −10.7% | −29.2% | −15.7% | +27.5% | −18.2% | +16.3% | −9.1% | −43.9% |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | 3 of 9 | −66.9% | +86.2% | −31.5% | +7.7% | −54.6% | −42.8% | +31% | −87.1% | −23.1% |
| London Breakout | 2 of 9 | +4.8% | −44.6% | −61% | 0% | −54% | −18.6% | −45.6% | −20.4% | +0.9% |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | 2 of 9 | −51.9% | −56.4% | −75% | −76.5% | +82.8% | −15.5% | +53.3% | −29.3% | −28.1% |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | 0 of 9 | −37.4% | −62.1% | −65.1% | −78% | −16.1% | −35.2% | −42.5% | −66.6% | −62% |
| ICT Silver Bullet | 0 of 9 | −66.9% | −75.9% | −74.9% | −69% | −22.6% | −23.2% | −11.7% | −69.7% | −69% |
| Bollinger Band bounce | 0 of 9 | −75.7% | −75.2% | −51.3% | −95% | −18.5% | −16.6% | −69.5% | −96.1% | −85.4% |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | 0 of 9 | −91.2% | −99.7% | −100% | −90.1% | −34.5% | −85.4% | −78.1% | −99.9% | −96.8% |
| Buy and hold | 6 of 9 | +137.1% | −2.1% | −1.5% | +41.4% | +106.5% | +50.7% | +78.1% | +90.8% | −10.5% |
Open the sortable ranking and watch a lesson for each strategy on gold, or replay gold yourself in the backtester.
How the test worked
- Dates: October 2021 to September 2026, on every market.
- Money: $10,000 to start, risking 1% of the balance on each trade, compounding.
- Signals: taken only from closed candles, so nothing uses information from the future.
- Trade handling: each trade is walked through one-minute candles. If a candle touches both stop and target, the stop counts first. Gaps fill at the opening price. A trade whose stop is under twice the spread is skipped.
- Costs: a fixed spread per market, shown above each table. Commission, swap and other slippage are not modelled, so real results would be lower.
- Checks: every market also ran random entries, which should lose about the cost, and an entry that could see the future, which should win. Both behaved as expected on all 9 markets, so a loss here is the strategy and not a broken test.
The rules tested
| Strategy | Type | Timeframe | Rules tested |
|---|---|---|---|
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | Indicator | 1 hour | Long when price is above the 200 EMA and the MACD line (12, 26, 9) crosses above its signal line below zero (mirror for shorts). Stop at the lowest low of the last 10 candles, target 1.5R. |
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | Indicator | 1 hour | Supertrend (10, 3) flips up while price is above the 200 EMA: buy (mirror for sells). Stop at the Supertrend line. Exit when the Supertrend flips back. |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | Trend following | Daily | Buy when the daily close breaks the highest high of the previous 20 days (mirror for sells). Stop 2 ATR (20) away. Exit when price closes beyond the lowest low (or highest high) of the previous 10 days. |
| London Breakout | Session breakout | 5 min | Asian range = high and low from 00:00 to 07:00 London. From 07:00 to 10:00 London, the first 5-minute close outside the range enters in that direction. Stop at the other side of the range, target 1R. Closed at 16:00 London. |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | ICT / Smart Money | 5 min | Previous day high and low (New York day, 17:00 to 17:00). From 03:00 to 12:00 New York, a 5-minute candle that trades above the previous high and closes back below it sells (mirror for the low). Stop beyond the sweep, target 2R. One trade a day, closed at 16:00 New York. |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | Session breakout | 5 min | Opening range = high and low from 09:30 to 09:45 New York. From 09:45 to 12:00, the first 5-minute close outside the range enters. Stop at the other side of the range, target 2R. Closed at 16:00 New York. |
| ICT Silver Bullet | ICT / Smart Money | 5 min | New York 10:00-11:00. First fair value gap on the 5-minute chart. Limit order at the middle of the gap, stop beyond the 3-candle swing, target 2R. Unfilled by 11:00 = no trade. Closed at 16:00 New York if still open. |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | Indicator | 1 hour | Buy when RSI (14) climbs back above 30, sell when it falls back below 70. Stop at the lowest low (or highest high) of the last 10 candles. Exit when RSI reaches the other side (70 for buys, 30 for sells). |
| Bollinger Band bounce | Indicator | 1 hour | Bollinger Bands (20, 2). A close back inside after a close below the lower band buys (mirror at the upper band). Stop beyond the last 3 candles. Exit when price closes at the middle band. |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | Indicator | 15 min | Buy when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA, sell when it crosses below. Stop at the lowest low (or highest high) of the last 10 candles. Exit on the opposite cross. |
Every popular strategy has many versions. These are one written version of each, so a different stop, target or filter can change the result. Our 20-strategy gold study tests other versions with different costs and can give different numbers.
Results by market
Gold (XAUUSD)
Spread charged: 0.3. Buy and hold over the same dates: +137.1%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.047R per trade across 1,897 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.576R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | +54.1% | $15,409 | 47.2% | 1.42 | 316 | 8.3% | 1.27 |
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | +25.7% | $12,572 | 36.4% | 2.02 | 385 | 18.1% | 1.16 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | +17.5% | $11,746 | 43.2% | 2.42 | 44 | 4.7% | 1.84 |
| London Breakout | +4.8% | $10,479 | 51.6% | 0.96 | 884 | 31% | 1.02 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −37.4% | $6,264 | 37.4% | 1.53 | 725 | 44.3% | 0.91 |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | −51.9% | $4,814 | 41.1% | 1.29 | 1,260 | 56.8% | 0.9 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −66.9% | $3,311 | 33.4% | 1.59 | 718 | 68.5% | 0.8 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | −66.9% | $3,306 | 19.6% | 3.55 | 825 | 71.7% | 0.87 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −75.7% | $2,431 | 41% | 1.27 | 1,738 | 79.2% | 0.88 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −91.2% | $883 | 26.5% | 2.56 | 5,286 | 96% | 0.92 |
EURUSD
Spread charged: 0.00012. Buy and hold over the same dates: −2.1%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.13R per trade across 1,940 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.489R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | +86.2% | $18,623 | 22.3% | 3.97 | 776 | 51.2% | 1.14 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | −6.9% | $9,313 | 35.7% | 1.36 | 56 | 10.8% | 0.75 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | −10.7% | $8,933 | 41% | 1.38 | 339 | 21.3% | 0.96 |
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | −30.5% | $6,952 | 32.7% | 1.73 | 443 | 38.8% | 0.84 |
| London Breakout | −44.6% | $5,539 | 49.4% | 0.91 | 1,083 | 52.5% | 0.89 |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | −56.4% | $4,355 | 40.1% | 1.35 | 1,248 | 62.3% | 0.9 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −62.1% | $3,791 | 36.3% | 1.44 | 720 | 64.2% | 0.82 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −75.2% | $2,483 | 41.9% | 1.25 | 1,878 | 80.3% | 0.9 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −75.9% | $2,413 | 34.1% | 1.47 | 736 | 76.3% | 0.76 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −99.7% | $32 | 26.1% | 2.3 | 5,450 | 99.7% | 0.81 |
GBPUSD
Spread charged: 0.00018. Buy and hold over the same dates: −1.5%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.149R per trade across 1,934 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.44R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | −2.9% | $9,711 | 42% | 1.22 | 50 | 9.5% | 0.88 |
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | −6.9% | $9,307 | 35% | 1.83 | 443 | 26.1% | 0.98 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | −29.2% | $7,079 | 39% | 1.35 | 359 | 37.7% | 0.86 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | −31.5% | $6,854 | 20.4% | 3.82 | 793 | 56.1% | 0.98 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −51.3% | $4,872 | 43.9% | 1.23 | 1,850 | 70.1% | 0.96 |
| London Breakout | −61% | $3,904 | 48.4% | 0.89 | 1,133 | 62.8% | 0.84 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −65.1% | $3,487 | 37% | 1.35 | 691 | 66% | 0.8 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −74.9% | $2,514 | 34.9% | 1.43 | 731 | 78.3% | 0.77 |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | −75% | $2,499 | 37.9% | 1.37 | 1,244 | 76.3% | 0.84 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −100% | $2 | 23.8% | 2.31 | 5,668 | 100% | 0.72 |
USDJPY
Spread charged: 0.015. Buy and hold over the same dates: +41.4%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.115R per trade across 1,994 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.534R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | +105% | $20,502 | 41.4% | 2.11 | 389 | 8.3% | 1.49 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | +14.2% | $11,416 | 41.5% | 2.39 | 41 | 6.5% | 1.69 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | +7.7% | $10,773 | 21.9% | 3.75 | 808 | 64.8% | 1.05 |
| London Breakout | 0% | $9,998 | 52.1% | 0.93 | 840 | 27.3% | 1.01 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | −15.7% | $8,431 | 39.6% | 1.41 | 316 | 31.2% | 0.93 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −69% | $3,103 | 35.1% | 1.47 | 727 | 71.8% | 0.8 |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | −76.5% | $2,352 | 38.6% | 1.31 | 1,237 | 76.7% | 0.82 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −78% | $2,200 | 33.9% | 1.28 | 610 | 78.9% | 0.66 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −90.1% | $988 | 25.3% | 2.78 | 5,462 | 93.8% | 0.94 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −95% | $501 | 37.5% | 1.28 | 1,746 | 95.5% | 0.77 |
NAS100
Spread charged: 1.5. Buy and hold over the same dates: +106.5%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.05R per trade across 1,389 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.55R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | +82.8% | $18,279 | 46.5% | 1.32 | 949 | 17.5% | 1.15 |
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | +37.5% | $13,753 | 43.3% | 1.61 | 337 | 12.4% | 1.23 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | +27.5% | $12,749 | 46.9% | 1.36 | 226 | 10% | 1.2 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | +8.6% | $10,856 | 48.7% | 1.61 | 39 | 3.8% | 1.53 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −16.1% | $8,391 | 38.4% | 1.55 | 584 | 33.9% | 0.97 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −18.5% | $8,145 | 39.8% | 1.53 | 1,298 | 67% | 1.01 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −22.6% | $7,740 | 34.7% | 1.78 | 539 | 31.1% | 0.94 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −34.5% | $6,550 | 25.8% | 2.91 | 3,629 | 87.6% | 1.01 |
| London Breakout | −54% | $4,602 | 46.4% | 0.94 | 793 | 56.1% | 0.82 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | −54.6% | $4,539 | 20.6% | 3.46 | 688 | 60.3% | 0.9 |
US30
Spread charged: 3. Buy and hold over the same dates: +50.7%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.139R per trade across 1,385 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.472R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | −1.4% | $9,857 | 40.4% | 1.49 | 334 | 24.7% | 1.01 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | −14% | $8,603 | 26.7% | 1.3 | 45 | 16.9% | 0.47 |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | −15.5% | $8,446 | 40.7% | 1.42 | 894 | 29.8% | 0.98 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −16.6% | $8,336 | 43.4% | 1.32 | 1,292 | 51.4% | 1.02 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | −18.2% | $8,185 | 39% | 1.37 | 228 | 32.7% | 0.88 |
| London Breakout | −18.6% | $8,141 | 50.5% | 0.94 | 769 | 24.7% | 0.95 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −23.2% | $7,683 | 34.4% | 1.79 | 497 | 38.8% | 0.94 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −35.2% | $6,482 | 35.8% | 1.59 | 534 | 44.6% | 0.89 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | −42.8% | $5,721 | 22.5% | 3.25 | 657 | 77.8% | 0.95 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −85.4% | $1,460 | 26% | 2.65 | 3,526 | 90.4% | 0.93 |
SPX500
Spread charged: 0.6. Buy and hold over the same dates: +78.1%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.036R per trade across 1,463 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.507R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | +53.3% | $15,330 | 43% | 1.45 | 976 | 21.6% | 1.09 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | +31% | $13,102 | 22.2% | 3.83 | 695 | 37.7% | 1.09 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | +16.3% | $11,627 | 45.5% | 1.36 | 209 | 11.4% | 1.14 |
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | +9.6% | $10,964 | 39.1% | 1.68 | 322 | 17.3% | 1.08 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | +0.3% | $10,032 | 35.7% | 1.86 | 42 | 5.3% | 1.03 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −11.7% | $8,826 | 36.3% | 1.73 | 560 | 22.9% | 0.98 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −42.5% | $5,749 | 36.8% | 1.49 | 560 | 44.7% | 0.87 |
| London Breakout | −45.6% | $5,440 | 48.7% | 0.9 | 813 | 49.9% | 0.86 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −69.5% | $3,050 | 41% | 1.3 | 1,386 | 77.5% | 0.9 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −78.1% | $2,191 | 25.4% | 2.81 | 3,790 | 92.7% | 0.96 |
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Spread charged: 25. Buy and hold over the same dates: +90.8%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.072R per trade across 2,651 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.517R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | +68% | $16,805 | 34.3% | 2.38 | 551 | 15.5% | 1.24 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | +17.3% | $11,732 | 38.2% | 2.59 | 55 | 5.9% | 1.6 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | −9.1% | $9,092 | 41.1% | 1.39 | 406 | 21.5% | 0.97 |
| London Breakout | −20.4% | $7,956 | 46.7% | 1.04 | 666 | 30.7% | 0.91 |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | −29.3% | $7,073 | 40.1% | 1.44 | 1,267 | 46.8% | 0.97 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −66.6% | $3,342 | 34.4% | 1.42 | 581 | 68.2% | 0.74 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −69.7% | $3,035 | 34.1% | 1.52 | 694 | 71.2% | 0.79 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | −87.1% | $1,285 | 20.7% | 2.99 | 1,018 | 90.3% | 0.78 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −96.1% | $388 | 42.6% | 1.07 | 2,557 | 96.8% | 0.8 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −99.9% | $7 | 23.5% | 2.75 | 8,325 | 99.9% | 0.85 |
Ethereum (ETHUSD)
Spread charged: 2. Buy and hold over the same dates: −10.5%. Check runs: random entries averaged -0.137R per trade across 2,101 trades; an entry that could see the future averaged +0.568R.
| Strategy | Return | $10,000 became | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Trades | Max drawdown | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend + 200 EMA | +67% | $16,697 | 32.2% | 2.7 | 454 | 20.4% | 1.28 |
| Turtle breakout (Donchian 20/10) | +12% | $11,200 | 33.3% | 3.09 | 42 | 6.4% | 1.55 |
| London Breakout | +0.9% | $10,089 | 49.9% | 1.02 | 515 | 12.4% | 1.01 |
| RSI oversold / overbought (30/70) | −23.1% | $7,690 | 24.3% | 3.11 | 855 | 71% | 1 |
| Opening Range Breakout (15 min) | −28.1% | $7,192 | 39.7% | 1.45 | 973 | 53.4% | 0.96 |
| MACD crossover + 200 EMA | −43.9% | $5,607 | 38% | 1.27 | 347 | 50.1% | 0.78 |
| ICT Turtle Soup (liquidity sweep) | −62% | $3,800 | 33.6% | 1.36 | 411 | 65.9% | 0.68 |
| ICT Silver Bullet | −69% | $3,103 | 33.4% | 1.46 | 524 | 71.7% | 0.73 |
| Bollinger Band bounce | −85.4% | $1,457 | 43.6% | 1.12 | 1,887 | 90.6% | 0.87 |
| EMA 9 / 21 crossover | −96.8% | $325 | 24.8% | 2.83 | 5,932 | 97% | 0.94 |
Frequently asked questions
Which trading strategy made the most in this test?
The largest single result was Supertrend + 200 EMA on USDJPY, at +105% over five years. Across all 9 markets, Supertrend + 200 EMA made money on the most (6 of 9). No strategy won everywhere.
Do ICT strategies work?
With the written rules tested here, ICT Silver Bullet made money on 0 of 9 markets and ICT Turtle Soup on 0 of 9. Those rules are one version of each idea, and different rules give different results: the Silver Bullet lesson in Absolute Learner uses a 1:1.5 target and made +38.1R on gold from January 2021 to August 2026, while the version here uses 1:2.
Did any strategy beat buy and hold?
On 3 of 9 markets at least one strategy finished ahead of simply holding the market, and 5 of 90 results did so overall. On gold, holding returned +137.1% and the best strategy +54.1%. The two are not the same risk: each strategy risks 1% per trade, while holding is fully exposed the whole time.
What costs are included?
A fixed spread for each market is charged on every trade, for example 0.3 on gold. Commission, swap and slippage are not modelled, apart from gaps, which fill at the opening price. Real results would be lower.
Can I test these strategies myself?
Yes. Absolute Learner shows this ranking and plays a marked-up lesson for all 10 strategies on gold, with no paid lock. You can also replay any market bar by bar in the backtester: the free plan is 2 sessions of 14 days of candles and up to 7 trades, and Pro is $4.98 for 8 months, paid once.
Is this financial advice?
No. These are past results from a simulation with stated rules and costs. They do not predict future returns.
Limits. This is a simulation of past prices with stated rules. It does not predict future returns and is not financial advice. Index and crypto prices are CFD or exchange feeds, which can differ from the prices your broker shows.