Every combination of win rate and R:R — see exactly which setups are profitable before you trade them
Backtest Your Strategy Free →The grid is before costs
MARGIN 17For a fixed reward-to-risk multiple R, the frictionless break-even win rate is 1 divided by 1 plus R. At 2R that is about 33.3%, not a guarantee of profit. Spread, commission, slippage, partial exits, and losses larger than the planned stop all move the real threshold higher.
A profitability matrix explains arithmetic; only a controlled sample estimates behaviour.
Find your win rate (left column) and your average R:R ratio (top row). The cell shows your profit factor — gross profit divided by gross loss. A profit factor above 1.0 means your strategy is profitable over a large sample. Below 1.0 means losing money even if it feels like you're "winning" trades.
Profit Factor = (Win Rate × Avg RR) ÷ (1 − Win Rate)
Break-Even Win Rate = 1 ÷ (1 + Avg RR)
Example: 50% win rate at 2:1 R:R → PF = (0.5 × 2) ÷ (0.5) = 2.00
| Win Rate ↓ / R:R → | 0.5:1 | 0.75:1 | 1:1 | 1.25:1 | 1.5:1 | 2:1 | 2.5:1 | 3:1 | 3.5:1 | 4:1 | 5:1 |
|---|
| R:R Ratio | Break-Even Win Rate | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5:1 | 66.7% | Must win 2 in 3 just to break even — very hard |
| 0.75:1 | 57.1% | Still above 50% needed — spread eats into this |
| 1:1 | 50.0% | The psychological trap — feels safe, spread kills it |
| 1.5:1 | 40.0% | Achievable for most strategies — realistic target |
| 2:1 | 33.3% | Only 1 in 3 trades need to win — very forgiving |
| 3:1 | 25.0% | Highly forgiving — 3 in 4 can lose and still profit |
| 5:1 | 16.7% | 1 in 6 wins suffices — but finding 5:1 setups is hard |
Beginner exploration
Open each answer for a plain-language way to read Win Rate × Risk-Reward Profitability Matrix, test it carefully and decide what to explore next.
This page focuses on “Win Rate × Risk-Reward Profitability Matrix”.Use a printable win-rate and risk-reward matrix to estimate break-even thresholds, expectancy before costs, and the sensitivity of a trading edge.For “Win Rate × Risk-Reward Profitability Matrix”, a beginner should identify what the worksheet measures, assumes or teaches before acting on its conclusion.Treat this page's account of “Win Rate × Risk-Reward Profitability Matrix” as a learning reference rather than a prediction, signal or promise of future performance.
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