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How to Backtest Double-Top Patterns Reproducibly

Research protocol · Reviewed 24 Aug 2026

A double top is easy to recognize after the reversal and difficult to select prospectively. The test must define when the pattern exists, when it confirms, and which near-misses still count as observations.

Have a second reviewer classify a subset before outcomes are revealed, then disclose disagreements instead of quietly deleting them.

Draw the neckline rule

DESK 48

A double top is not complete at the second high

Define peak separation, height tolerance, intervening trough, neckline break, confirmation close, and invalidation before scanning. Count near-misses and patterns that never confirm; otherwise the sample begins only after success is visible.

  1. Use a fixed lookback and price tolerance.
  2. Decide whether wicks or closes define peaks.
  3. Enter only after the predeclared confirmation.
  4. Compare with a matched trend or range baseline.

Pattern recognition becomes evidence only when another reader can select the same 150 examples.

Define selection before scanning

Set timeframe, peak lookback, maximum separation, price tolerance, trough depth, neckline, confirmation close, entry, stop, target, and expiry. Use the same wick-or-close convention throughout.

Test more than the textbook target

Report selection count, confirmation rate, expectancy after costs, adverse excursion, failure modes, and results by regime. Compare with a simpler reversal or trend baseline to learn whether the double-top definition adds information.

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