"Bitcoin is uncorrelated." That was the 2017 narrative. In 2026, the data says something very different. We ran correlation analysis on BTCUSD and SPX500 using 3 years of M1 data from FXAbsolute. Here is what we found.
| Period | Correlation (R) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Overall (2023-2026) | 0.62 | Moderate positive — move together |
| 2023 | 0.48 | Weak positive |
| 2024 (H1) | 0.71 | Strong positive — ETF approval rally |
| 2024 (H2) | 0.54 | Moderate positive |
| 2025 | 0.67 | Strong positive — rate cut cycle |
| 2026 (so far) | 0.58 | Moderate positive |
The correlation strengthened significantly during the BTC ETF approval window (0.71 in H1 2024) and during the global rate-cutting cycle (0.67 in 2025). When macro factors dominate — rate expectations, inflation data, risk appetite — BTC and SPX500 move together. When crypto-specific events dominate — exchange hacks, regulatory news, protocol upgrades — the correlation breaks.
Both pairs available with M1 data. Backtest your strategy on both. See if your edge transfers across correlated assets.
▶ Backtest BTC + SPX500 Free| Session | BTC-SPX Correlation | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| US Open (14:00-21:00 UTC) | 0.74 | Strongest — both driven by US macro |
| London (8:00-16:00 UTC) | 0.58 | Moderate |
| Asian (0:00-8:00 UTC) | 0.31 | Weak — BTC trades on crypto news |
During the US session, the correlation jumps to 0.74 — BTC and SPX500 effectively trade as the same asset. During Asian hours, when US equities are closed and crypto markets are driven by exchange-specific news, the correlation drops to 0.31. The takeaway: if you trade BTC during US hours, you are trading a leveraged beta on the S&P 500. Know what you are actually trading.
If your BTC strategy works but your SPX strategy does not — or vice versa — you are likely trading the same macro signal twice, just with different execution. Test both side by side on FXAbsolute. If they perform identically, you do not have two strategies — you have one strategy running on two correlated assets. That is not diversification — it is concentration disguised.
FXAbsolute is the only free backtesting tool that gives you forex, crypto, and indices on the same platform. Test correlation. Avoid duplication. Know your real edge.
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